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Area forecast discussion...updated for aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
730 am EDT Sat Jul 22 2017



Short term /today through Sunday/...

The main concern for today continues to be the persistent upper
ridge and hot temperatures. Little in the way of dynamics to force
convection...but old boundaries from Friday and afternoon heating
should be able to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. Have
broad brushed 25 to 30 percent pops for the afternoon. Thunderstorms
should diminish by 06z and Sunday looks like it will be a repeat.

Afternoon temperatures should range in the low to mid 90s for much
of the forecast area today. Dew points were tweaked up again for
today to go with persistence. Current heat advisory looks good
except have added another row of counties on the northern side
since these areas were showing hi values of above 105. Models
indicate somewhat lower thickness values for Sunday...however still
looking for only a slight difference in Max temperatures.

41



Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...

The forecast through the extended continues to be characterized by
daily shower and thunderstorm opportunities. At the onset of the
period on Monday, an upper shortwave and approaching cold front will
serve to focus scattered convection, especially by afternoon and
evening during peak daytime heating. Given a moisture rich airmass
with pwats around 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall can be expected.
Furthermore, as is typical during mid Summer with building afternoon
instability, some strong thunderstorms will be possible.

This weakening cold front will continue to linger in the
area through midweek, which will enhance diurnal convection each
day. By late week, the upper levels transition into a northwest flow
pattern. Any disturbances riding into the area will bring additional
shower and thunderstorm chances to the state with the increased
potential for mesoscale convective systems arriving from the
northwest.

High temperatures will not stray too far from normal through the
long-term period, with highs generally near 90 in north Georgia and
into the lower 90s in central Georgia. Low temperatures, meanwhile,
will run a few degrees above normal in the mid-70s with the
exception of cooler temperatures in the mountains.

Rain shower



&&

Aviation...
12z update...
VFR conditions through the forecast with diurnal cumulus expected.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms again this afternoon and evening.
Have included only vcsh in tafs so far since pops are low.
Winds will be light and variable this morning becoming southwest
8 to 10kt after 14z. A few areas of 3 to 5sm in fog 09z to 14z.

//Atl confidence...12z update...

High on all elements.

41

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 97 74 94 74 / 30 20 40 30
Atlanta 94 75 92 74 / 30 20 40 30
Blairsville 89 69 88 68 / 30 20 40 40
Cartersville 94 73 92 73 / 30 20 40 40
Columbus 97 76 93 75 / 30 20 40 30
Gainesville 92 74 91 73 / 30 20 40 30
Macon 97 74 95 75 / 30 20 40 20
Rome 96 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 40
Peachtree City 93 73 92 73 / 30 20 40 30
Vidalia 95 74 94 75 / 30 20 30 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...
Crawford...crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Harris...Houston...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...Marion...
Monroe...Montgomery...Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Schley...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...
Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

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