Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
310 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
the over all pattern continues through the short term. We have
been in this pattern for at least 2 maybe 3 weeks now and there
appears to be no changes in the near future. The main east-west
oriented upper ridge continues to control the weather pattern
across the southern Continental U.S.. a wave developing over the northern
Gulf is moving onshore the la/MS/al/FL coast bringing rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
to the southeastern states. This precipitation is moving northward over
over south Georgia and is beginning to push into the SW corner of our
County Warning Area. Right now not seeing much thunder for our area...just showers
and they appear to be diminishing as they push northward. With the
increased Gulf moisture moving into the region coverage may be a
bit more Wednesday than today. SBCAPE values are expected to get a
bit stronger Wednesday with reading in the 1800-2700 j/kg range so
may see a bit more potential for wet microbursts and lightning.
Temps should continue slightly above normal with heat index values
remaining below 105 so no advisory expected.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
no major changes needed to the long term portion of the forecast.
Ridging aloft begins to break down by Friday into Saturday. This
should allow a weak trough to set up across the County warning forecast area. The weak
trough should remain in place through Sunday or early
Monday...before riding begins to build back over the southeast for
the middle part of next week.
A weak Lee trough may try to set up across eastern GA, but
overall,high pressure should dominate the sensible weather at the
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day and should
be diurnal in nature. No strong indicators for widespread severe
weather are noted at this time.
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are moving up from
the coast but they appear to be diminishing as they move north.
Will see this convective activity continue through the evening
hours then subside by 02z- 04z. Have decided to pull the tempo
group out of the tafs as it appears the precipitation will most
likely not make it to the taf sites. Kept in a vcsh for a few
hours through just to be on the safe side. Winds are mainly out of
the west-SW and will stay there through the taf period. Wind speeds
will stay 10kt or less with some gust to 15kt in and around thunderstorms and rain
activity. Not expecting any issues with ceilings or vsbys. Will
see another round of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain Wed afternoon between 19z- 00z.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
confidence high on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 74 95 75 95 / 10 20 20 20
Atlanta 75 92 74 92 / 10 20 20 30
Blairsville 68 88 70 86 / 20 30 30 50
Cartersville 73 93 73 91 / 20 30 30 40
Columbus 74 94 74 95 / 20 20 20 20
Gainesville 75 92 74 91 / 20 30 30 30
Macon 74 96 74 98 / 10 20 10 20
Rome 73 92 73 91 / 20 30 30 40
Peachtree City 73 92 72 92 / 10 20 20 20
Vidalia 75 97 76 99 / 10 20 10 20