Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1044 am EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
no changes. Current forecast in excellent shape.
High pressure will dominate the weather across north and central
Georgia today. Pressure gradient still tight enough to support gusty
north-northwest winds -- several locations already gusting 20-25
mph. 14z /10am/ temperatures were generally in the lower to mid
50s. Look for only around another 10f degree rise in temps through
the afternoon hours beneath sunny skies.
Previous discussion... /issued 738 am EDT Sat Oct 22 2016/
Short term /today through Sunday/...
High fire danger in effect through 8 PM...
High pressure will continue to build over the state through Sunday
with cool and dry Canadian air dominating the region. Generally
clear skies will prevail today through Sunday. A breezy northwest
flow of 15 to 25 mph will continue today...but should remain under
Wind Advisory criteria. Temperatures will be a few degrees below
normal today and tonight with the continued cold air advection.
However...with high settling over the southeast U.S. On Sunday...
and the wind becoming light from the west...expect the abundant
sunshine to warm temperatures up to several degrees above normal.
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
The initial portion of the long term will once again be centered
mainly around the continued dry conditions and resultant fire
danger potential. Rh values Monday afternoon look to be on the
order of 20 to 25 percent for a large section of central Georgia...once
again requiring the likely issuance of a Fire Danger Statement.
Moderating values are expected thereafter with no additional fire
danger products anticipated.
A secondary re-enforcing high will build north of the area on Tue
with ridginf on the east side of the Appalachians. This will take
the highs on Monday of upper 70s to lower 80s down to the mid 70s
on Tue and lower to mid 70s on Wed.
Models have trended slightly wetter in the extended period as
relates to the Thu time period. Both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf)
indicate a deep upper trough moving the the plains and into the
Tennessee Valley on Thu. GFS is further south and closes off the
low resulting in higher precip chances. Given persistent dry
pattern am inclined to lean toward the drier European model (ecmwf) solution for
now. Likewise...will lean toward the more progressive European model (ecmwf) as
well with drying conditions Friday through the weekend.
a high Fire Danger Statement will be issued for most of central Georgia
and portions of north Georgia today. Lowest relative humidities will
drop this afternoon into the 20 to 25 percent range for four hours
over central Georgia and 25 to 35 percent for north Georgia. A northwest wind
of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to near 25 mph will prevail. Any wildfires
that occur will have the potential to spread quickly.
Aviation... 12z update...
high pressure will continue to build into the state with VFR
conditions and a breezy northwest wind today diminishing tonight and Sunday.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
high confidence on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 67 42 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 67 46 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 58 37 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 66 38 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 71 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 64 44 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 70 40 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 66 39 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 68 41 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 70 44 75 48 / 0 0 0 0