Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 281109
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
709 am EDT Wed Jun 28 2017
Cirrus continues to stream across the region this morning with a
bit more coverage in mid level clouds across the north than
anticipated. Expect this cloud deck to diminish, but diurnal
cumulus to redevelop by late morning. Patchy fog observed across
portions of central Georgia should mix out over the next hour or two.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 342 am EDT Wed Jun 28 2017/
Short term /today through Thursday/...
Strong surface high pressure anchored over the Ohio River valley
will continue to edge eastward, eventually moving off the mid-
Atlantic coast late Wednesday. Aloft, a long wave trough exits New
England with zonal flow across our region. Thus, we should see
another pleasant day across the area. There may be enough moisture
convergence across far central Georgia to see isolated
showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures will be a couple degrees below
normal under easterly flow.
As the surface high shifts further offshore, expect better moisture
flux by early Thursday. Meanwhile, a series of mid-level impulses
will move across the region from the Gulf Wednesday night into
Thursday. Given these factors, shower/thunderstorm development will
ramp up by early Thursday morning. Anticipate the precipitation
coverage to increase from the south with some isentropic lift noted
throughout the day. With the precipitation and cloud coverage,
cooler temperatures are expected for Thursday.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
Day to day forecast still consistent for the long term period. By
Thursday night the return flow has been established and we remain
under a south to southeast low level flow. Models still hint at a
short wave moving across central or south Georgia Thursday or Friday.
An upper trough deepening over the Great Lakes and into the Ohio
Valley over the weekend may help push a front into TN/KY.
So...likely pops look reasonable for north Georgia on Saturday and have
stayed with that. Into the first of the week the pattern is
unsettled and we remain in an unstable airmass. However there
looks like there may be some brief drying for the end of the
period but not enough to remove pops. Have lowered pops a bit for
Monday and Tuesday.
VFR criteria to start off this taf period as surface high
pressure continues to dominate the sensible weather. As the high
shifts off the mid-Atlantic coast, this will allow winds to
continue to veer to the east through the afternoon. Expect some
high clouds with diurnal cumulus development (around 5kft) by mid/late
morning. Winds will be around 8-10kts with the occasional higher
gusts. By the evening, light winds will be out of the east-southeast. Expect
increasing sub-VFR cloud decks through Wednesday night, from south
to north. Chance of showers/thunderstorms after sunrise Thursday.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
high confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 86 67 83 69 / 10 10 50 30
Atlanta 85 70 82 69 / 10 20 60 40
Blairsville 80 62 78 64 / 5 10 50 30
Cartersville 86 68 82 69 / 5 10 60 40
Columbus 88 72 83 72 / 10 20 60 50
Gainesville 84 68 81 68 / 10 10 50 30
Macon 88 70 83 71 / 10 20 60 40
Rome 87 68 83 69 / 5 10 60 40
Peachtree City 86 68 82 69 / 10 20 60 50
Vidalia 88 72 84 72 / 10 20 60 30