Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 281425
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1025 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
frontal boundary is slowly sagging southward across the County warning forecast area this
morning. Overnight convection has produced some lingering showers
and copious cloud cover. The airmass has been stabilized for the
morning, but holes in the cloud cover have started to occur. The
best chance for any shra/tsra should be along and south of this
boundary this afternoon and evening. Have tweaked pops a little to
reflect this trend.
Temp/dewpoint trends look good for now.
Previous discussion... /issued 738 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
Previous discussion... /issued 347 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
Short term /today through Wednesday/...
Second round of thunderstorms continues to roll through the
northern tier. Low end cape values still reside along an axis
from central Alabama in to west central Georgia so would expect to
continue to see some lightning with ongoing activity. All short
term hi res show and gradual shift in activity through the atl
Metro through daybreak as well as an overall weakening trend which
looks on target given aforementioned instability.
Will likely be dealing with some low clouds early on in the day
for central Georgia which should delay any further development but
eventually by this afternoon...additional activity should fire.
Moisture and cape values will be modest at best but supportive for
low end sct thunderstorm development generally between the i20 and
i16 corridors. Still some cold temps aloft but trends in lapse
rates will be downward as shortwave passes to the east and ridge
builds in. Not out of the question for a strong storm or two but
should be very isolated in nature if at all.
Not much change for Wed except that upper ridge gets even a little
stronger in response to digging trough well to the west. This will
allow for temps just about areawide to reach the low to mid 80s.
Ridge should also preclude any significant precip development but
will keep a sliver of 20 pops across central Georgia for now where
moisture and instability is enhanced.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
The beginning of the long term period is characterized by
more unsettled weather. Rain chances will initially increase
Thursday especially across the eastern sections of County Warning Area in vicinity
of weak wedge front. The main storm system then quickly encroaches
on the area from the west Thursday night into Friday bringing good
shower and thunderstorm chances area wide. The possibility for
some strong to severe thunderstorm activity remains during this time
frame with adequate shear though instability is less impressive.
Nonetheless, it is something to watch as we head from Thursday night
This storm system exits east by Saturday with a dry and warm weekend
in store thanks to upper ridging. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday
will be several degrees above average with mostly sunny skies.
Early next week will transition back into an active pattern, though
models diverge on timing and evolution of the next storm system. The
European model (ecmwf) brings the next system into the area as early as Monday while
the GFS holds off until Tuesday. Regardless, expect the brief
inactive weather this weekend to come to an end early next week.
With rain showers/thunderstorms and rain moving through in waves...environment remains mixed
enough to prevent any developing IFR across the area. Indications
are this will be changing later this morning with at least some
MVFR to develop the west and then moving in with low level SW
flow. Have gone tempo MVFR for now for the atl sites and then
improvement to VFR by early afternoon. Discontinued threat of
thunderstorms and rain this afternoon at atl terminals but kept at mcn and csg with
low end chance in the grids requiring a prob30 for those
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium on MVFR development.
High on remaining elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 78 54 83 58 / 30 5 0 5
Atlanta 76 57 82 61 / 30 10 10 5
Blairsville 71 48 77 55 / 20 5 0 5
Cartersville 76 53 81 59 / 30 10 5 5
Columbus 80 61 85 60 / 30 20 20 0
Gainesville 75 54 80 58 / 30 5 0 5
Macon 80 59 85 60 / 30 20 20 5
Rome 76 52 81 58 / 20 10 5 5
Peachtree City 77 56 83 57 / 40 20 20 5
Vidalia 83 63 86 63 / 30 20 10 0