Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 181912
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
312 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017
Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
strong ridge remains the dominating factor for the fcst period as
mostly clear skies and dry thermal columns prevail. As far as frost
potential GOES tomorrow morning, only have a few spotty locations in
the far NE for patchy development and not thinking coverage or
confidence is enough to warrant a statement for now but the
evening/overnight trends will need to be monitored if temps start
radiating down cooler.
Another pleasant fall-like day on tap for Thursday with highs near
climo norms in the low to mid 70s for most locations. Winds should
be lighter given a weaker gradient as the center of the sfc ridge
weakens/slides over the southern Appalachians.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
cold front still on schedule for early next week.
High pressure aloft and at the surface will still be overhead on
Friday, but begin to shift offshore on Saturday as a cold front
moves into the Mississippi River valley. The front is expected to
impact the County warning forecast area Sunday into Tuesday. There are still some slight
differences between the GFS and the ECMWF, especially at 500mb. The
European model (ecmwf) is a bit further north with the mid level low pressure by
Monday night and brings it through the County warning forecast area as an open wave/trough.
The GFS is a bit stronger with the 500mb low digging a bit further
south and coming through as a closed low. Timing is also an issue,
with the GFS a bit slower to bring the frontal boundary through the
Overall, there were no major changes to the ongoing forecast. Still
not confident enough with timing to put likely pops in.
Aviation... 18z update... VFR conditions thru period with
mostly clear skies. Winds may have a few locations with low end
gusts out of the east initially this afternoon but should decrease
to near 3-5 kts overnight and persist tomorrow. Some question as
to if afternoon winds tomorrow will have a period more NNE, but
kept steady east-northeast for now.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
medium on late period wind direction.
High on all else.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 42 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 48 75 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 36 73 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 43 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 50 78 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 45 72 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 46 78 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 41 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 41 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 53 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0