Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 231954
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
354 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017
Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
most of the widespread precipitation associated with the frontal
boundary, but showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across
the far southeast until the front pushes east of the area. There is a
little potential for an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be possible. A secondary frontal boundary
is expected to move through overnight/early Tuesday, but
precipitation is not expected with this system. However, the colder
air is behind this frontal boundary.High pressure will build across
the area for the remainder of Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures in the northeast mountains are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s overnight Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable
for some patchy frost.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
long term forecast continues to be on track with the latest model
runs. Made some minor adjustments to timing of onset of
precipitation with next frontal system overnight Friday night,
and the timing of the exiting precipitation on Sunday. Models
continue to show cooler conditions through the week, with a slight
warm up before the frontal passage. Cooler and drier conditions
resume behind the next front.
Patchy frost may be a problem Wednesday morning and Thursday
morning in the north Georgia mountains due to The Drop in
temperatures, and have continued mention in the wx grids.
Previous forecast discussion follows.
/issued 357 am EDT Mon Oct 23 2017/
The long term portion begins with a very strong mid level trough
moving through with a very much mid winter appearance. This will
usher in the coldest air of this Young fall season by far with mid
to upper 30s for the northern tier on Wednesday morning and now
only recovering to the upper 50s for Wednesday afternoon. There
will be some wrap around clouds with the passage of the trough but
at this time, moisture looks too shallow to result in any
High pressure remains in control for much of the week with
continued cold conditions during the overnight as there could be
some lower 30s for the NE mountains Wed night into Thu morning.
Next wx system will be on tap for the weekend as another cold
front moves into northwest Georgia late on Friday. Does not appear at this
time as if this one will be able to tap into the Gulf so front
will have to bring all its moisture with it. Looks limited at best
for precip chances and will limit to low end chance in the grids
Looks like the European model (ecmwf) has come around to the GFS solution of a
cleaner frontal passage Sat into sun. Still will hold onto some pops through
the first half of the weekend for now but if trends continue,
should be able to drop altogether with subsequent forecasts.
Another shot of cold temps to follow the frontal passage with a
return to lows in the 30s.
cold front has moved east of atl this afternoon. Some off-on bkn
MVFR cigs are possible the next couple of hours as cold air strato
cu moves in behind the front. VFR cigs expected through the
remainder of the period. Winds have turned west and will remain on
the west side through the period. Gusts up to around 20kt possible
this afternoon and tomorrow.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
high confidence all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 48 69 42 61 / 20 0 0 0
Atlanta 51 66 43 59 / 10 0 0 0
Blairsville 43 60 35 54 / 10 5 5 0
Cartersville 47 64 38 58 / 5 0 0 0
Columbus 52 70 45 64 / 5 0 0 0
Gainesville 49 64 42 58 / 10 0 0 0
Macon 49 72 42 64 / 10 0 0 0
Rome 47 64 38 58 / 5 0 0 0
Peachtree City 47 67 40 61 / 10 0 0 0
Vidalia 54 76 47 67 / 40 5 5 0