Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 250135 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
935 PM EDT Wed may 24 2017
cold front on the E side of the area with the last of the
thunderstorms associated. Showers over Alabama associated with
the upper low will affect the N and portions of central Georgia
later tonight into Thursday before exiting.
Previous discussion... /issued 700 PM EDT Wed may 24 2017/
Short term /tonight through Friday/...
complex system moving across the County Warning Area with rotating cells
continuing across central Georgia. Will continue the Tornado Watch for
mainly the eastern half of the County Warning Area along and ahead of the main
area of convection. Drier air is already moving into western Georgia
and this will continue to be the trend. Will end the pops from the
west through this evening, however the cold core 500 mb low will move
over the County Warning Area and this will keep northern Georgia unstable enough for
scattered showers through the night. The 500 mb low move rapidly into
the Carolinas however with daytime heating and the proximity to
the cold core, there will continue to be scattered showers/tstorms
over northeast Georgia through much of Thursday. Skies become mostly
clear Thursday night and Friday. Winds will be gusty Thursday but
should diminish Thursday night and Friday.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
no major changes for the long term. Previous long term discussion
shortwave ridge of high pressure will maintain dry and stable
conditions through Saturday, with temperatures quickly bouncing
back during the day Sat.
Moisture will gradually increase this weekend as west/swerly flow
becomes more pronounced across the region ahead of large upr vortex
dropping south from central Canada over the northern plains/upper
Midwest. By Sunday and into the first part of next week, several
shortwaves will interact with sufficient moisture and low lvl
convergence along a west-east oriented frontal boundary to
support an increasing chance of shower and a few thunderstorms.
This "system" is not looking nearly as impressive as what we've
been dealing with over the past few days but it will bring the
area more rain, on top of what we've had already. Drier air moves
in from the northwest late Monday into Tuesday with a nearly
stationary frontal boundary across North Florida/south Georgia -
where lingering chances for showers/storms will exist Tuesday.
Temperatures into early next week should remain around normal for
late may -- lower to mid 80s for highs and mid 60s for lows.
storms with brief heavy rain continue across parts of eastern Georgia
but these are moving quickly and the threat of flash flooding has
ended. Will therefore cancel the Flash Flood Watch.
best convection on the E side of the forecast area and will clear
mcn shortly. Otherwise sct-bkn VFR clouds with potential for MVFR
ceilings late tonight/early Thursday for a brief period with some
mainly shower activity for portions of N and central Georgia. All
MVFR-VFR ceilings diminishing Thursday. Surface winds mainly west
diminishing tonight to less than 10 kts then increasing 10-15 kts
with gusts to 25 kts during the day Thursday.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
low confidence for ceiling heights tonight.
Medium to high confidence for all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 56 75 56 84 / 50 30 0 0
Atlanta 56 74 58 84 / 30 10 0 0
Blairsville 51 69 51 80 / 50 40 10 5
Cartersville 55 74 55 85 / 50 20 0 0
Columbus 58 78 57 88 / 30 10 0 0
Gainesville 56 72 57 82 / 50 40 0 0
Macon 57 78 56 86 / 60 10 0 0
Rome 55 75 55 86 / 50 20 0 0
Peachtree City 55 75 54 85 / 30 10 0 0
Vidalia 62 79 60 87 / 80 10 0 0