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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
655 am EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Update for aviation...

Previous discussion... /issued 340 am EDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

Short term /today through Sunday/...

An upper trough continues over the se cwa and drifts into the
northern Gulf of Mexico during the day as more or a weak upper low.
This seems to give the best chances for highly diurnal convection to
the far N and far southern portion of central Georgia as these 2
locations are where the best forecast instability is located. At
this time, my thinking is that the precip potential should only go
into the early evening hours tonight.

For Sunday, the upper low drifts W along the Gulf Coast states with
Hurricane Maria moving N over the western Atlantic. A surface ridge
of high pressure will have built down the Appalachians. This seems
to keep precip chances too low to mention in the forecasts at this
time.

A warm airmass continues over the area with forecast high
temperatures running 4-7 degrees above normal today and 3-5 degrees
above normal for Sunday. Forecast low temperatures are running around
5 degrees above normal for tonight.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

Bdl

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...

No real changes to the recent extended forecast trends seen with this
model cycle. Medium range models continue to keep the region under a
large, but not particularly strong, upper-level ridge through all
but the tail-end of the period. Upper trough breaks down the ridge as
we head into Thursday/Friday of next week and a surface trough
develops across the coastal Carolinas and into central/south Georgia
in the wake of Maria as she sweeps up the East Coast. Persistent
northeast to north low-level flow keeps the region stable through the
period, and this stable airmass and the absence of strong upper
dynamics or low-level forcing keeps pops low with this late-week
system. Dry and above seasonal normal temperatures reign until then,
replaced by more seasonal temperatures as we head into next weekend.

20

&&

Aviation...
12z update...
patchy morning fog dissipating quickly. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected into tonight. Few-bkn cu 3500-6000 ft. Convection
expected to be limited today and have no confidence to include in
any taf at this time. Surface winds becoming east-northeast 10 kts or less.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium to high confidence on all elements.

Bdl

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 87 65 86 65 / 10 0 5 5
Atlanta 87 68 85 68 / 10 5 5 5
Blairsville 83 58 82 60 / 20 10 10 5
Cartersville 87 64 86 64 / 10 5 5 5
Columbus 89 68 88 68 / 10 5 10 5
Gainesville 86 66 85 66 / 10 5 5 5
Macon 88 66 87 66 / 10 5 5 5
Rome 87 64 87 64 / 20 10 5 5
Peachtree City 87 65 85 64 / 10 5 5 5
Vidalia 89 68 87 68 / 10 5 5 5

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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