Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
435 am EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
Short term /today through Wednesday/...
High pressure anchored along the SC coast will help to promote
southwesterly flow across the region. With no strong mid level
impulses, convection during the peak heating will not be well
organize. The area of which we may see a bit more coverage may be
along the northern tier with a weak Piedmont trough and perhaps
across the southwest with any seabreeze/weak impulse moving north
from the Panhandle. With fairly Low Cape values (around 1000j/kg),
convection may be limited with mainly showers/iso thunder and
isolated downburst given amble temperature/dew point spread.
Otherwise, anticipate a hot day on tap. Highs in the mid 90s apart
from upper 80s across the mountains.
Any precipitation activity should diminish after sunset; although
similar to last night, some elevated activity could continue a bit
later given enough lift and moisture. Clouds will decrease with
temperatures dropping into the low/mid 70s and upper 60s across
Wednesday will be similar to today, perhaps a degree or two cooler
as thickness values drop ever so slightly, 500mb winds become
more westerly and a bit more cloud cover in place. In addition, a
weak Lee trough set up across the region with a high to the south
will yield a stronger pressure gradient with south winds around
10kts across the southern tier. Coverage for thunderstorms and rain will be
scattered with no real mechanism for organized convection. Feel if
any location was to see more precipitation, it would be across the
northern half of the County Warning Area given better convergence. For any
thunderstorm development, cape values are marginal, so anticipate
activity to be sub-severe. Highs in the low/mid 90s and mid/upper
80s across the mountains.
For both today and tomorrow, heat indices should stay below 105.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
models remain in general agreement through the long term. The 500 mb
ridge breaks down toward the end of the week as a short wave
deepens into a weak trough and remains nearly stationary over the
Mississippi Valley. This will increase moisture over the southeast
which in turn will increase the chances of showers/tstorms to the
County Warning Area...mainly northwest Georgia beginning Thursday and continuing into
the weekend. The ridge begins to re-assert itself at the beginning
of next week however the chance of mainly afternoon and evening
showers/tsra will continue. With the increase in showers/tstorms
and clouds...Max temps will be a little cooler than what we have
seen over the past several weeks however the rest of the County Warning Area will
remain hot. Overnight lows will also remain warm through the long
VFR conditions are expected through most of the taf period.
Showers/mid-level clouds will continue to move north of the Metro
taf sites through the next couple of hours. Clear and mainly calm
conditions through the remainder of the overnight. Fog/stratus
should be limited. Southwest winds will increase a bit through
the morning. Cumulus field will develop by mid-morning. Convection in
the afternoon will be scattered and mainly confined to peak
heating. So anticipate any wind shift associated with any thunderstorms and rain.
Precip activity should erode a couple hours after sunset.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
confidence high on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 96 73 95 75 / 20 10 20 20
Atlanta 93 74 92 74 / 20 10 20 20
Blairsville 88 67 88 70 / 40 20 30 30
Cartersville 94 72 93 73 / 30 20 30 30
Columbus 94 74 94 75 / 30 20 20 20
Gainesville 92 74 92 74 / 20 20 30 30
Macon 97 74 96 74 / 20 10 20 10
Rome 95 72 93 73 / 30 20 30 30
Peachtree City 93 72 92 72 / 20 10 20 20
Vidalia 97 75 97 76 / 20 10 20 10