Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 191916
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
316 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
Quiet fcst continues on with ridge in control of regime and
prevailing dry/mostly clear conditions. While center of sfc high is
close to north GA, our resultant winds should be light and variable
to calm overnight. Radiational cooling should be strong but not
result in as low of morning temps (staying in 40s for most areas).
Friday should have some amplifying upper ridging that translates the
sfc high a bit farther northeast, so while winds tomorrow should
still be light, they should have more of a east component. Highs
should moderate to about 5 deg above climo, with most areas in the
upper 70s to near 80.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
High pressure ridging will continue to influence the forecast area
to begin the extended period, which will lead to the continuation of
benign and seasonal conditions. Cloud coverage will begin to increase
on Saturday as the upper level ridge moves off to the east and is
replaced by upper level southwesterly flow. More moisture is then
expected in the area on Sunday due to return flow off the Gulf of
Mexico, which will lead to an increase in pops, in the 20 to 30
percent range in the afternoon.
Medium-range models are then fairly consistent in regards to the
passage of a cold frontal system through the forecast area early
next week. Widespread heavy rain, with pops in the 60 to 80
percent range, and the potential for at least isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms can be expected ahead of this front. It is
most likely that these conditions will be observed on on Monday
night and into Tuesday. However, model inconsistencies still exist
concerning the orientation, timing, and strength of this system.
Strong cold air advection associated with another shortwave, along
with the cooler air already in place behind the passage of the
front, could contribute to significantly below normal temperatures
to the area in the later parts of the week.
VFR conditions thru period. Clear skies and light vrb to calm
winds for majority of period given high pressure influence. Should
see a bit more east-northeast tomorrow but still light generally 5 kts or
//Atl confidence...18z update...
high on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 47 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 50 78 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 41 77 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 44 78 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 52 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 49 77 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 47 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 42 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 44 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 54 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 5