Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
321 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...
deep northwest flow across the southeast region behind departing East Coast
trough resulting in gusty northwest winds and strong cold-air
advection. Mid afternoon temperatures are generally in the mid to
upper 60s across much of north and central Georgia and there hasn't been
a cloud in the sky all day. Surface ridge of high pressure is
currently over the arklamiss region and will continue to slide east
through tomorrow /Sunday/.
Dry and stable conditions will prevail over the next couple days.
Winds will decouple/weaken around or shortly after sunset this
evening. The light winds and very dry boundary layer conditions
beneath this "cold dome" of high pressure will allow for temps to
fall fast. Have undercut ensemble temp forecast a couple of degrees
and went more along the met/mav short-term blend. Look for overnight
low temps to fall between the upr 30s and mid 40s. A few outlying
areas could see mid 30s with patchy frost a possibility.
Sunday...building upr level heights will allow temps to rebound
about 5-10f degrees higher than today. Winds will be noticeably
lighter as surface high pressure moves overtop the region. Abundant
sunshine and dry conditions will persist. The combination of very
low afternoon humidity and ongoing drought conditions will continue
to support high fire danger across much of north and central
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
no major changes needed to the forecast at this time.
High pressure will continue through the middle of next week. A front
is still on track for Thursday into Friday but the models are still
struggling with the amount of precip associated with the frontal passage. The
GFS coming in a bit drier than the European model (ecmwf). For now, made no major
changes and kept the slight chance/low chance pops in place. The
main forcing with the boundary remains well to the north, so will
keep the mention of thunder out also.
Aviation... 18z update... VFR conditions will continue to
prevail at all sites through tomorrow (sunday). Gusty north/northwest winds
will diminish between 22-00z this evening. Lighter winds are
expected Sunday as the center of the surface high blankets the
southeast/Gulf Coast region.
//Atl confidence...18z update...
high for all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 41 74 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 45 74 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 38 69 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 39 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 43 77 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 43 72 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 38 75 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 37 75 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 38 75 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 44 72 47 82 / 0 0 0 0