Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kffc 201504 
afdffc

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1004 am EST Mon Feb 20 2017



Update...

Only minor trend adjustments to near term dewpts and sky cover
with just some cirrus across the area today as regime staying
ridge dominated. On tap for a pleasant abnormally warm afternoon
with highs in mid to upper 70s for most locations to enjoy. Some
southern sites could get within a few degrees of records too.
Previous discussion follows...

Baker

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 621 am EST Mon Feb 20 2017/

Update...
updated for the 12z aviation discussion.

Previous discussion... /issued 421 am EST Mon Feb 20 2017/

Short term /today through Tuesday/...
models in good agreement through the short term. Another
unseasonably warm day as the 500 mb ridge moves over the County Warning Area with Max
temps approaching record values today. This ridge will move off the
East Coast with the next short wave, currently over the Southern
Plains, moves into the southeast Tuesday. This is already spreading
high level moisture across the County Warning Area and this will continue into
Tuesday. Atlantic and Gulf moisture will begin spreading into the
County Warning Area late tonight and Tuesday. Stratus/strato cu will develop over
the area late tonight and as the moisture deepens Tuesday along with
isentropic lift...showers will spread into the western and northern
parts of the County Warning Area late Tuesday afternoon. Instability will be weak
and therefore no thunder is expected Tuesday afternoon. With a low
level east flow Tuesday, Max temps will be slightly cooler, but
still above normal.

17

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
the extended forecast begins with a frontal system over the area.
This front brings increased chances of showers to the County Warning Area Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday. The forecast models differ a bit on
the strength and intensity of this next system but they both show
it weakening as it pushes into Georgia. There is very little
instability with it so continuing with showers and no mention of
thunder. This weakening system keeps increased moisture over the
area through the end of the work week so will keep slight chance
to chance pops across the area through then. Another short wave
and associated cold front will move out of the Midwest and into
the eastern US Friday evening. This system is expected to have a
little more instability with it so keeping in the mention of
isolated thunderstorms for Friday/Friday night. This second front
appears to move east of the County Warning Area Sat afternoon and clear things
out for Sunday.

01

Climate...

Records for 02-20

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 78 1986 37 2015 57 1991 14 2015
katl 78 1986 32 1901 57 2014 16 2015
1994 1934
kcsg 80 1986 36 2015 63 1991 21 2015
1917
kmcn 80 1991 37 2015 61 1961 18 2015
1986

Records for 02-21

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 76 1981 34 1928 59 1997 13 1885
1925
katl 75 1976 32 1898 62 1997 10 1896
kcsg 81 1922 40 1901 62 1997 18 1958
1971
kmcn 81 1976 40 1904 60 1997 23 1958

&&

Aviation...
12z update...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast. Some moisture
just off the surface should lift after sunrise producing
few035-050 into the afternoon. Otherwise bkn250 through the
forecast. Low level moisture will increase late tonight bringing
sct-bkn strato cu...cigs likely becoming MVFR across atl after
sunrise Tuesday. Winds will be on the east side through the
forecast with speeds less than 10 kts.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
high on all elements.

17

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 76 50 71 54 / 0 0 20 60
Atlanta 75 54 71 56 / 0 0 20 60
Blairsville 71 44 65 49 / 0 0 20 70
Cartersville 75 51 70 54 / 0 0 50 70
Columbus 77 54 76 57 / 0 0 20 70
Gainesville 73 50 66 53 / 0 0 20 70
Macon 78 51 77 57 / 0 0 20 60
Rome 74 51 71 54 / 0 0 50 70
Peachtree City 77 51 72 54 / 0 0 20 60
Vidalia 78 53 77 59 / 0 0 5 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations