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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
701 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Previous discussion... /issued 200 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017/

Short term /tonight through Friday night/...

This forecast period will be another very warm one for late
February, but some changes are on the horizon. After highs well into
the 70s areawide today, even warmer temperatures are on tap for
Friday. High temperates will be in the upper 70s across much of
north Georgia with lower 80s expected in central Georgia. With these
temperatures being more typical for early may, record highs will
likely be reached for at least a couple of the area climate sites
Friday.

A cold front will be quickly approaching the area by Friday night,
which will bring increasing rain chances for north Georgia. The best
overlap of instability and shear will remain to the north of the
state closer to the parent system; however, there will be sufficient
forecast shear and instability for the potential for a few
thunderstorms overnight Friday night. The GFS indicates several
hundred j/kg of cape across northwest Georgia between 03z and 09z
Saturday as well as 0-1km bulk shear around 30 knots. Given these
borderline parameters, a couple stronger thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out in far north Georgia, but the overall severe threat is
quite low. This thinking lines up well with the current day 2
outlook from spc, which only has a small sliver of northwest Georgia
within a marginal risk area.

The overall coverage and intensity of these showers and isolated
thunderstorms will quickly wane as they move eastward Saturday
morning. Cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the area
behind the front by the end of the short term forecast period.

Rain shower

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...

No significant change made to the extended forecast grids. Medium-
range models remain in relatively good agreement through the majority
of the period. After a more seasonal and mainly dry weekend, rain
chances pick up again and persist through the majority of next week
as the region remains under a general southwest to west upper-level
flow pattern and on the return side the surface ridge in the western
Atlantic. Please see the previous long term forecast discussion
below.

20

Prev long term discussion... /issued 456 am EST Thu Feb 23 2017/

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
the extended forecast begins with minimal moisture lingering
across the region ahead of next frontal system moving out of the
Ohio River valley. This frontal system moves into northwest Georgia late
Friday night/Sat morning bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms
to the area. The better dynamics and instability indices stay
well north of the state so only expecting isolated showers and
thunderstorms though Sat morning/early afternoon. This front will
push east of the County Warning Area Sat afternoon clearing things out for
Sunday. Another frontal boundary pushes east out of the Central
Plains states and moves into West Georgia Monday. Again...not expecting
much in the way of instability so going with isolated thunder
chances for Tuesday and Wednesday as it lingers over the area.

01

Climate...

Records for 02-23

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 79 2012 34 1989 57 1922 18 1939
1980
katl 79 1980 32 1901 62 1909 19 1939
kcsg 83 1996 37 1989 67 1962 18 1963
kmcn 81 1980 37 1901 66 1909 22 1963
1909

Records for 02-24

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 81 1930 37 1947 58 1944 19 1989
1967
1947
katl 77 1982 35 1907 64 1890 17 1989
1947
kcsg 81 1930 38 1901 61 1979 21 1989
kmcn 79 1985 36 1901 62 1961 18 1901
1930



&&

Aviation...
00z update...

Mainly just some scattered cumulus to deal with with most of it
dissipating with the setting sun. Tranquil conditions until
overnight when an area of low clouds will move in from southeast to northwest
and affect most of of the terminals by 10z. Some guidance even
hinting at a little earlier but will let next shift take a look.
Otherwise...band of rain showers associated with next front boundary
should hold off until next taf cycle for atl.

//Atl confidence...00z update...
medium on low cloud timing.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 53 78 57 68 / 0 5 30 20
Atlanta 55 78 56 63 / 0 10 40 10
Blairsville 50 72 49 58 / 5 20 60 10
Cartersville 53 78 52 60 / 0 10 60 10
Columbus 55 80 57 67 / 0 5 20 10
Gainesville 54 75 55 62 / 0 10 50 10
Macon 53 81 57 70 / 0 5 20 20
Rome 52 78 50 59 / 0 10 60 10
Peachtree City 51 78 54 64 / 0 10 40 10
Vidalia 57 81 58 76 / 5 0 0 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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