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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
334 PM EDT Mon may 29 2017



Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
..a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of north
and central Georgia until 9 PM EDT...

As expected, with ample instability in place, thunderstorms are
quickly developing, primarily in association with an impulse moving
from eastern Alabama into western Georgia. Thunderstorm coverage
will continue to increase, especially ahead of this disturbance as
it traverses the County Warning Area through this evening. SBCAPE values have
already reached in excess of 2000-2500 j/kg which will contribute to
thunderstorm intensification and the increasing possibility of some
severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat
in the strongest storms with steep low level lapse rates and
plentiful moisture. While some hail is possible, less impressive mid-
level lapse rates will tend to reduce the large hail threat a bit.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish
overnight after sunset as daytime heating is lost and the
aforementioned impulse moves eastward.

The cold/stationary front currently residing to our northwest will
continue to slowly sag into to our area on Tuesday. The proximity of
this boundary as well as continuing southwest flow aloft will
contribute to additional scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer shear will not be a factor tomorrow as
it is today, so while showers and thunderstorms can again be
expected on Tuesday, threat for strong/severe thunderstorms will be
low.

Rain shower



Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
models are coming into better agreement for the late week system.
Confidence is increasing on showers/tstorms and have therefore
increased probabilities. No other major changes planned. Previous
long term discussion follows...

17

Previous long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
the long term remains unsettled with basically a west or
southwest flow aloft across the southern states...and low pressure
continuing across the Great Lakes. A moist air mass is expected
to persist and a series of short waves will cross the area through
the period. Breaks in the precipitation will be hard to time. So
the overall pattern remains similar with chance or slight chance
pops each period. GFS/European model (ecmwf) hint at a surface front pushing into
Georgia Wednesday night into Thursday with somewhat drier air but not
confident enough on this to make any big pop changes.

41

&&

Aviation...
18z update... scattered thunderstorms will be in proximity to taf
sites through this evening with locally gusty winds and MVFR
ceilings/IFR vsbys in and near thunderstorms. Outside of
thunderstorms primarily VFR conditions can be anticipated this
evening. MVFR ceilings are possible by Tuesday morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are again expected by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will be westerly through the period.

Confidence... medium confidence on ceilings Tuesday morning.
High confidence other elements.

Rain shower

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 66 81 64 85 / 60 40 20 20
Atlanta 67 79 65 83 / 60 40 20 20
Blairsville 60 78 58 78 / 60 30 20 30
Cartersville 65 80 62 83 / 60 40 20 20
Columbus 70 84 67 86 / 30 40 20 20
Gainesville 65 79 64 82 / 60 40 20 20
Macon 68 85 66 86 / 30 40 20 20
Rome 65 82 61 84 / 60 40 20 30
Peachtree City 66 80 63 83 / 50 40 20 20
Vidalia 72 89 70 89 / 20 30 20 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...
Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...
Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...DeKalb...Douglas...Fayette...
Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...
Harris...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...
Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...north
Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...
Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...
Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

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