Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
337 am EDT sun Jul 31 2016
Short term /today through Monday/...
still not expecting any major changes to the general pattern we
have seen over the area for the past several days. Weak upper
troughing remains in place through Monday. Models are indicating
that the better moisture...with pws around 1.75 to 2 inches has
settled south into central Georgia. Better instability also
expected over the southern half of the forecast area through the
period. Scattered convection expected to develop each day with
slightly better pops across our central Georgia zones. As with
the past several days... lack of any strong upper-level support
and moderate instability at best should keep convection below
severe limits. Increased convective cloud cover and precipitation
coverage each afternoon will help to moderate temperatures a
little bit...but we should see highs at or slightly above seasonal
normals each day. Heat index values are expected to remain below
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
long-range models continue to show a weak... yet persistent long
wave trough drifting along the Atlantic Seaboard by early Tuesday.
Disturbances traversing through this upper trough will deepen a
surface low off the mid-Atlantic coast and help drag a weak
surface front into the state by late Tuesday. At this time... it
appears a developing northwest flow aloft could spread some drier
air into at least parts of north Georgia and help push the boundary
into mainly central Georgia by Tuesday afternoon. This suggest a lessor
rain chance across north Georgia and maybe only a low scattered
coverage across central Georgia on Tuesday and Wednesday. Weak
disturbances in the west to northwest flow aloft combined with
increasing low level moisture from a developing southerly low
level flow should help increase rain chances across the area by
Thursday and this pattern may continue into the weekend. For
now... will continue to show 30-40 percent pops for the later half
of the work week and into Saturday. The overall pattern shows a
weakly sheared environment with only modest instabilities... all
suggesting any severe threat will be minimal with nothing
widespread or organized severe-wise expected through the long
term at this time. Otherwise... highs in the 90s and lows in the
70s will persist.
/issued at 145 am EDT sun Jul 31 2016/
VFR conditions will predominate across the majority of the forecast
area through the forecast period outside of convection. Will see
some local to scattered MVFR or lower visibilities developing
between 06z and 14z. Although an isolated shower or thunderstorm
will be possible at any time...the best coverage will be between 16z
and 02z. Winds will remain west to southwest through the period...
generally 6kt or less through 14z then increasing to 6-10kt after.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
Medium confidence concerning development and extent of any MVFR or
lower ceilings and visibilities this morning and on coverage of
convection this afternoon and evening. High all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 94 73 93 73 / 40 30 40 30
Atlanta 90 74 91 74 / 40 30 40 30
Blairsville 87 68 88 67 / 40 30 40 30
Cartersville 91 72 92 71 / 40 30 40 30
Columbus 93 75 93 74 / 50 40 50 40
Gainesville 90 73 90 73 / 40 30 40 30
Macon 94 73 93 73 / 50 40 50 40
Rome 91 71 93 72 / 40 30 40 30
Peachtree City 91 73 92 71 / 40 30 40 30
Vidalia 95 76 94 75 / 50 40 50 40