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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
127 am EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Previous discussion... /issued 700 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

Update...
update for the 00z aviation discussion.

Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
a weak frontal boundary continues to push south across the
forecast area this afternoon. A few showers have popped up along
and south of the front, but thunder hasn't developed yet. Do think
the coverage of storms will remain isolated/scattered and thunder
chances will remain low. A strong storm or two is possible and
severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Convection could
last into the evening hours, but should diminish with the loss of
heating.

Not completely confident that the frontal boundary will make it
south of the County warning forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. Have left isolated pops
in the forecast, mainly along and south of the front. Since high
pressure aloft will help suppress storms, coverage should remain
isolated. Severe weather is not anticipated, and the potential for
even strong storm development will remain low.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
no major changes made to the extended forecast, except for
pushing back the increasing pops on Thursday to more of a late
morning/afternoon time frame. Current forecast looks on track,
with similar discrepancies noted between extended models handling
of early next week's system. Previous forecast discussion is
included. Atwell

/issued 347 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/...

The beginning of the long term period is characterized by more
unsettled weather. Rain chances will initially increase Thursday
especially across the eastern sections of County Warning Area in vicinity of weak
wedge front. The main storm system then quickly encroaches on the
area from the west Thursday night into Friday bringing good shower
and thunderstorm chances area wide. The possibility for some strong
to severe thunderstorm activity remains during this time frame with
adequate shear though instability is less impressive.
Nonetheless, it is something to watch as we head from Thursday night
into Friday.

This storm system exits east by Saturday with a dry and warm weekend
in store thanks to upper ridging. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday
will be several degrees above average with mostly sunny skies.

Early next week will transition back into an active pattern, though
models diverge on timing and evolution of the next storm system. The
European model (ecmwf) brings the next system into the area as early as Monday while
the GFS holds off until Tuesday. Regardless, expect the brief
inactive weather this weekend to come to an end early next week.

Rain shower

&&

Aviation...
06z update...

Mainly mid level clouds remain over central Georgia although models do
indicate a developing area of MVFR over South Alabama will move in
to affect mainly csg. Looks like these clouds will remain south of
the atl terminals and just some developing VFR cumulus expected
this afternoon. Winds will be on the light side but there will be
a shift to the east side here in the next few hours.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
high on all elements.

Deese

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 82 58 78 60 / 5 5 50 80
Atlanta 81 60 79 61 / 10 10 40 70
Blairsville 76 55 69 55 / 10 10 40 80
Cartersville 81 58 79 59 / 10 10 30 70
Columbus 84 60 85 62 / 20 20 20 70
Gainesville 79 58 73 58 / 10 10 50 80
Macon 84 60 85 62 / 10 10 40 70
Rome 81 58 79 59 / 10 10 30 70
Peachtree City 82 57 81 60 / 10 10 30 70
Vidalia 85 63 83 64 / 20 20 30 50

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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