Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 290824
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
424 am EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
Short term /today through Thursday/...
Looking like a rather tranquil period in between the severe storms
of Monday and the upcoming system late this week. Strong closed
upper low over 4 corners and entering the Southern Plains will act
to build heights locally and suppress most convective activity.
Cannot completely go pop free today however as boundary begins to
lift north and acts as the focus for isolated activity over
central Georgia primarily. Cape values will struggle to get to 500 to
1000 j/kg across this zone but enhanced moisture with precipitable water of 1.30
inches should allow for at least some limited non severe activity.
Given continued ridge influences overnight...convection will come
to a quick end this evening. Continued mild conditions over the
area the result of the ridge as well with highs today in the lower
to mid 80s and only the upper 50s to around 60 for tonight.
Tonight into Thu will see the development of a wedge which seems
appropriate as March "cad"ness continues for the Carolinas. This
will bring low clouds and cooler temps to the NE sections of the
local forecast area initially. Eventually...should see enough
convergence...moisture and instability to allow for a marked
increase in precipitation. Wouldnt think it would be more than
scattered coverage but all models are bullish on likely so will
bite for now and follow suit.
Best upper dynamics will remain west of the area through Thu
evening but still some storms to advect in just prior to the end
of the short term. Cape very limited at this point but still some
marginal shear values and cold temps aloft which could allow for
an isolated severe storm or two for the far northwest portions.
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be quickly increasing across the area
Thursday night as the storm system currently affecting the Southern
Plains shifts eastward. The main focus during this time frame will
be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. The best
overlap of instability, shear, and dynamics will be to the west of
our area earlier on Thursday. By the time convection reaches
Georgia, instability will be waning, but a few hundred j/kg of cape
will still be available along with decent shear, especially across
the northwest half of the area. For this reason, strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday,
though the lion's share of the severe weather will likely be west of
the area during the day on Thursday.
Models have also sped up the system and indicate the upper shortwave
and the majority of the precipitation will largely exit east of the
area by midday Friday. Upper ridging is then in control for the
weekend, bringing a respite from the storminess, albeit a brief one.
Temperatures will be well above average both Saturday and Sunday
with mostly sunny skies.
Models agree that this brief break comes to an abrupt end by the
beginning of next week as the next system comes bowling across the
south central US. Rain chances become likely by Monday. The chance
for strong thunderstorms will be something to watch on Monday.
The active pattern looks to continue after the early week system as
models indicate another storm system on track for mid-to-late next
week, though timing and evolution differences remain.
Mainly mid level clouds remain over central Georgia although models do
indicate a developing area of MVFR over South Alabama will move in
to affect mainly csg. Looks like these clouds will remain south of
the atl terminals and just some developing VFR cumulus expected
this afternoon. Winds will be on the light side but there will be
a shift to the east side here in the next few hours.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
high on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 83 59 77 60 / 0 10 70 70
Atlanta 82 61 80 60 / 10 5 30 80
Blairsville 77 55 70 55 / 0 10 60 80
Cartersville 81 59 79 59 / 5 0 30 80
Columbus 85 60 84 62 / 20 5 10 60
Gainesville 80 58 73 58 / 0 10 70 80
Macon 85 60 85 62 / 20 10 50 60
Rome 82 59 80 59 / 5 0 20 80
Peachtree City 83 58 82 59 / 20 5 30 80
Vidalia 86 63 83 64 / 20 10 50 40