Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 080542
Area forecast discussion...updated aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1242 am EST Thu Dec 8 2016
/issued at 950 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016/
lingering low level moisture and some clearing has produced patchy
dense fog mainly eastern areas tonight. Have added a mention of this
in the forecast. Otherwise no changes.
short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
old frontal boundary will remain across portions of northern Georgia
through tonight. The old boundary will finally begin to push
southward during the day tomorrow as strong high pressure builds in
over the area.
The cloud forecast has been somewhat difficult today, and that won't
change for overnight. Low level clouds are surrounding much of the
County warning forecast area. The eastern flank has begin to erode a bit...but the western
flank has begun to move eastward. Do think skies will go mostly
cloudy/cloudy again this evening and overnight for those areas that
have seen a bit of sun today. The clouds should hang around until
the entire front moves through with good mixing on the
backside...this should be something during the late morning/early
In the mid levels, a shear axis is situated in the vicinity of the
old frontal boundary. This feature may help squeeze out any available
moisture, mainly across extreme north Georgia overnight. Since there
isn't a lot of moisture around, removed the mention of a slight
chance of showers and added patchy sprinkles. No accumulating precip
The good cold air isn't expected to begin moving into the area until
later tomorrow. So, in the highest elevations across northern GA,
temps may remain nearly steady from overnight min values.
Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
still not looking at any significant changes to the long-term
forecast trends with this cycle. Medium-range models continue to edge
slightly less extreme concerning the cold airmass to start the
period, although temperatures will be below seasonal normals and will
be the coldest of the season so far. Overall pattern remains fairly
progressive and a decent moderation of temperatures occurs ahead of
the late weekend system and it still looks like a liquid event at
ceiling forecast still difficult this morning with MVFR cigs just to
the west of atl. Not confident MVFR cigs will make it into atl...
but will start out prevailing few015 and show a tempo bkn015 thru
10z for now. Where large breaks in the clouds occur... we could see
some patches of dense fog develop... especially around ahn. Expect
some mid and high clouds to spread down from the north along a cold
front... but these will sct by this evening. Northwest winds will
persist... and increase by 14-15z with fropa. Expect gusts into the
20-25kts range by late morning and into the afternoon.
//Atl confidence...06 update...
medium confidence on cloud forecast. Otherwise, high
confidence remaining elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 40 53 27 47 / 5 5 5 0
Atlanta 40 48 27 43 / 5 5 5 0
Blairsville 36 42 19 38 / 10 10 5 0
Cartersville 38 48 25 40 / 5 10 5 0
Columbus 43 56 30 49 / 5 5 0 0
Gainesville 40 49 26 42 / 5 5 5 0
Macon 43 58 29 50 / 5 5 5 0
Rome 38 47 22 41 / 10 10 5 0
Peachtree City 40 50 25 45 / 5 5 5 0
Vidalia 47 61 37 51 / 5 5 5 0