Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
935 PM EDT sun Jul 24 2016

a few remnant outflow boundaries could trigger some showers and
possibly isolated thunderstorm or two through this evening...along
with sea breeze front in the southeast. Not expecting much after
midnight so have continued previous trend of slight pops area-wide
leading up to. Some patchy fog in early morning for mainly areas
that received some spotty precip. Previous discussion follows...



Previous discussion... /issued 829 PM EDT sun Jul 24 2016/

Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
isolated convection having a hard time getting ramped-up this
afternoon but should continue to slowly increase in strength and
coverage for the next couple of hours before diminishing. Still
not anticipating more than low-end scattered coverage and severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

Very little appreciable change to the overall pattern through the
short-term forecast period. Forecast area remains under weak
upper- level ridging and on the western periphery of the western
Atlantic surface ridge. Models also continue to show some weak
surface troughiness on the northwest side of ridge over the
forecast area persisting through the period as well. All of this
adds up to little change in the general forecast trends through
Monday night with near to slightly above seasonal normal lows and
above seasonal normal high temperatures with isolated to scattered
diurnal convection. Instability remains marginal at best for any
strong to severe storms.

Small area of the east-central Georgia portion of the forecast
area flirting with heat advisory level heat index values this
afternoon however the area is small and not expected to expand
significantly. Forecast heat index values tomorrow are similar or
slightly below todays values so I do anticipate an advisory will
be needed at this time.



Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
no major changes were made to the extended period as the typical
Summer-time pattern continues with mainly isolated to scattered
diurnally driven convection expected each day... and above normal
temperatures continue. See the previous discussion below. 39

Previous long term discussion.../issued 348 am EDT sun Jul 24 2016/

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...

An upper level ridge will continue across the southern
Appalachians Monday night and this should keep showers and
thunderstorms mainly diurnal. However the NAM continues pops after
midnight with greater moisture under the ridge.

The upper ridge drifts a little S over the area for Tuesday. However
plenty of moisture and instability will continue chances for mostly
diurnal showers and storms favoring north Georgia. Another hot day with high
temperatures in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s for portions of
the mountains. Heat indices will range 100-105 for a large portion of
central and East Georgia.

The upper level ridge pattern continues for Wednesday with mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms favoring north Georgia. Most high
temperatures will again be in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s
for portions of the mountains.

The upper ridge shifts some to the se for Thursday...more so on the
GFS than the European and the GFS has more moisture for north and West Georgia
than the European. This will still favor north Georgia for showers and storms.

The GFS minimizes the upper ridge for Friday and Saturday with more
moisture across the area while the European holds the ridge in more
with less moisture. This will still favor north Georgia with the greatest chances
for showers and storms.



00z update...
mainly VFR conditions expected with slight chance of some early
morning MVFR visibilities but too low to include in taf. Otherwise just
some initial lingering vcsh then expect mostly clear skies and
light SW to calm winds overnight. Then again a scattered-broken 4-5 kft
deck Monday with afternoon thunderstorms and rain chance similar to today. Winds
stay SW mainly under 7 kts.

//Atl confidence...00z update...
high on all elements.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 73 95 73 95 / 20 30 30 30
Atlanta 74 93 74 93 / 20 40 30 30
Blairsville 68 90 69 88 / 20 40 30 50
Cartersville 71 94 71 93 / 20 40 30 40
Columbus 75 95 75 94 / 20 30 30 30
Gainesville 74 94 74 92 / 20 40 30 30
Macon 73 95 73 96 / 20 30 20 30
Rome 72 95 72 94 / 20 40 30 50
Peachtree City 70 93 71 93 / 20 40 30 30
Vidalia 73 95 73 96 / 20 20 20 20


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...20/Baker
long term....39

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations