Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
405 am EDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Short term /today through Tuesday/...
no significant feature to focus on during the short term period.
East-west oriented upper ridge extends across all of southern Continental U.S.
With two weak upper highs centered over the southwest US and off the
Carolina coasts. In between these two highs...an easterly wave type
feature is forecast to intensify Tuesday as it moves toward la coast
..most prominently shown in the 00z Gem which almost appears like a
weak tropical cyclone. All models do show more widespread convection
associated with this easterly wave Tuesday over North Florida and
southwest Georgia...some of which could move into SW part of County Warning Area.
Otherwise...afternoon/evening diurnal convection likely again both
today and Tuesday with maximum coverage around 30-35 percent today
and 35-40 percent Tuesday. SBCAPE values this afternoon should reach
1000-1500 j/kg but could be a little higher Tuesday...1500-2500 j/kg
so may see a relatively more potential for wet microbursts and
lightning Tuesday. Temps should continue slightly above normal but
heat index values should remain below 105 so no advisory needed.

Snelson



Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
models in pretty good agreement in the long term. There are some
differences toward the end of the long term per location of the deep
moisture. Through at least the end of the week a ridge of high
pressure will be the dominant feature with diurnally driven
convection each afternoon and evening. By the end of the week a
trough sets up over the Mississippi Valley however the 500 mb ridge will
keep it from pushing too far east. This is where differences
develop. The GFS brings the Gulf moisture into much of the County Warning Area while
the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian models keep the moisture to the west of the
County Warning Area. Will maintain chance pops through the end of the week and raise
pops to high chance...mainly across north Georgia...by next weekend.



17



&&

Aviation...
06z update...
no significant aviation wx impacts expected this forecast with
VFR conditions. Only concern is chance for thunderstorms and rain in the
afternoon/evening mainly between 19-23z which should remain
scattered with no more than 30 percent coverage at any one time.
Surface winds will remain SW through the forecast with speeds 8kts
or less.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
high on all elements.

Snelson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 96 73 95 75 / 30 30 20 20
Atlanta 94 74 93 75 / 30 30 30 20
Blairsville 88 67 88 70 / 40 30 40 30
Cartersville 94 72 94 74 / 30 30 30 20
Columbus 96 74 94 76 / 30 20 30 20
Gainesville 93 74 93 75 / 30 30 30 20
Macon 97 74 96 75 / 30 20 30 20
Rome 95 72 94 73 / 30 30 40 20
Peachtree City 94 71 93 72 / 30 20 30 20
Vidalia 96 74 95 76 / 20 20 20 10

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...snelson
long term....17
aviation...snelson

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations