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fxus62 kffc 192333 
afdffc

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
633 PM EST sun Feb 19 2017




Previous discussion... /issued 158 PM EST sun Feb 19 2017/

Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the
state through the short term. Winds will shift to the east around
the surface high on Monday, drawing Atlantic moisture into the
region. As a result, after a sunny day Monday, clouds will increase
over the area Tuesday. There is enough low level moisture will
provide an opportunity for patchy fog to develop each morning
through Tuesday. Next system approaches the area just beyond the
short term period.

Warming trend expected through the short term, with lows generally
in the 40s and low 50s, and highs reaching the mid to upper 70s
Monday afternoon. Forecast temperatures are generally 2-3 degrees
from record values. Please see the climate section below for
reference.

31

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
mainly only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

Bdl

Previous discussion...
models in good agreement holding a surface to upper level ridge over
the County Warning Area through Tuesday afternoon. Another developing frontal
system moves out of the southern and Central Plains and into the
southeastern U.S. Tuesday morning. This front brings increased
chances of showers to the County Warning Area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
The forecast models differ a bit on the strength and intensity of
this next system but they both show it weakening as it pushes
into Georgia. There is very little instability with it so staying with
showers and no mention of thunder. This weakening system keeps
increased moisture over the area through the end of the work week
so will keep slight chance to chance pops across the area through
then. Another short wave and associated cold front will move out
of the Midwest and into the eastern US Friday. This system is
expected to have a little more instability with it so keeping in
the mention of isolated thunderstorms for Friday/Friday night.
This second front appears to move east of the County Warning Area Sat and clear
things out for Sat afternoon and sun.

01

Climate...

Records for 02-20

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 78 1986 37 2015 57 1991 14 2015
katl 78 1986 32 1901 57 2014 16 2015
1994 1934
kcsg 80 1986 36 2015 63 1991 21 2015
1917
kmcn 80 1991 37 2015 61 1961 18 2015
1986



&&

Aviation...
00z update...
main forecast issued for this taf cycle will be the overnight wind
shift. Currently, winds are NNW, but has high pressure across the
Ohio Valley slides east overnight, the winds are expected to go
NE. The hi-res models have the shift occurring sometime between
06z and 09z. Some patchy fog is possible across northern GA, but
confidence is low that MVFR visibilities would impact the airfield.



//Atl confidence...00z update...
high confidence all elements.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 45 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 20
Atlanta 49 75 53 71 / 0 0 0 20
Blairsville 39 72 45 66 / 0 0 0 20
Cartersville 42 74 49 71 / 0 0 0 20
Columbus 49 78 54 76 / 0 0 0 20
Gainesville 47 73 50 68 / 0 0 0 20
Macon 46 77 50 75 / 0 0 0 10
Rome 43 74 49 71 / 0 0 0 20
Peachtree City 43 76 48 72 / 0 0 0 20
Vidalia 51 78 53 76 / 0 0 0 5

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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