Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 220522
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1222 am EST Wed Feb 22 2017
updated for the 06z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 1025 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017/
Rain continue to move north across western Georgia with
precipitation totals around a half an inch or so. Anticipate this
activity to transition eastward with coverage dwindling by the
Previous discussion... /issued 233 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017/
Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
500mb analysis and WV loop shows an upper low across the arklamiss.
This system will push southeast through the remainder of the short term
forecast. The surface low pressure system will also drop southeast through
Rain shield has had some difficulty moving east today. The short
term hi-res models were struggling with its progression earlier
today, but seem to have a better handle on the situation this
afternoon. A few showers are possible late this afternoon ahead of
the main rain shield, but the widespread rainfall is expected to
reach the I-85 corridor right around 00z.
Overnight rain chances remain fairly high as the upper level and
surface systems move southeast across the deep south. As the low pressure
centers get further away early Wednesday, the rainfall chances will
Min and Max temp values will average 10 to 15 degrees above
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
The extended forecast begins on Thursday with the upper low now well
south of the area over South Florida and pushing into to the
Atlantic. Our area will remain cloudy and very warm. Most of the
area should remain dry Thursday, though a few showers will be
possible in the northeast Georgia mountains.
By Friday the next frontal system will be approaching the area.
Temperatures ahead of this front will be well into the 70s for the
entire area with central Georgia likely warming into the 80s. These
forecast high temperatures on Friday will come very near or reach
record high temperatures for the date at some locations. Rain
chances will increase Friday night in association with the cold
front, primarily in north Georgia. There does appear to be
sufficient instability in place in north Georgia for the
inclusion of thunderstorm chances overnight Friday. However, the
best dynamics with this system will pass well north of the region,
so severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
This front will quickly clear the state by late morning Saturday,
ushering in high pressure. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be
closer to late February normals as will Sunday high temperatures.
These seasonal temperatures will not last long, however, as a quick
warming trend will bring back the above normal temperatures we have
become accustomed to by early next week. Another frontal system
appears to bring back rain chances to the area by midweek next week
a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs will become predominantly MVFR with IFR
developing early this morning. Ceilings will increase to MVFR late
this morning and afternoon. Cigs are expected to become IFR after
00z Thu. Winds will remain easterly less than 10 kts through the
forecast. Rain will continue from csg to the atl area with
scattered showers around ahn and mcn. This will continue this
morning...diminishing late this morning and afternoon.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
low to medium on ceilings.
Medium on timing and extent of rain and vsbys.
High on winds.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 70 55 74 54 / 50 20 10 10
Atlanta 70 57 73 56 / 40 10 10 10
Blairsville 63 51 69 50 / 60 10 20 20
Cartersville 69 54 72 54 / 40 10 5 10
Columbus 73 56 76 56 / 40 20 5 10
Gainesville 65 55 71 55 / 50 10 10 10
Macon 73 56 77 54 / 50 20 10 10
Rome 69 54 73 54 / 30 10 5 10
Peachtree City 70 54 73 53 / 40 10 10 10
Vidalia 73 59 78 58 / 50 20 10 5