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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
737 am EDT Mon may 29 2017




Previous discussion... /issued 416 am EDT Mon may 29 2017/

Short term /today through Tuesday/...
mostly high clouds across the area this morning but things are
expected to change. A frontal boundary entering north Georgia with
increased moisture and instability across the area will lead to
more widespread thunderstorms activity this afternoon and evening.
Expecting scattered convective to develop after 18z as cape
values peak around 2000-3000 j/kg range. Any thunderstorms that do
develop should be heavy rain producers with pws in the 1.6 to 1.8
in range through tues morning. Some thunderstorms are expected to
be strong to severe with favorable 0-6km shear around 30-35 knots
contributing to the severe threat this afternoon/evening. The
primary threats will be damaging wind gusts with some marginally
severe hail and heavy rainfall.

The main frontal system pushes into central Georgia by Tue morning and
appears to stall. There is still some decent instability and
moisture across the area but it does not appear that things will
weaken some so not expecting as much convective coverage tues as
today.

01

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
the long term remains unsettled with basically a west or
southwest flow aloft across the southern states...and low pressure
continuing across the Great Lakes. A moist air mass is expected
to persist and a series of short waves will cross the area through
the period. Breaks in the precipitation will be hard to time. So
the overall pattern remains similar with chance or slight chance
pops each period. GFS/European model (ecmwf) hint at a surface front pushing into
Georgia Wednesday night into Thursday with somewhat drier air but not
confident enough on this to make any big pop changes.

41

&&

Aviation...
12z update...
no major changes made from 06z taf. Mainly VFR ceilings and vsbys
with some showers and thunderstorms moving into the taf sites
this afternoon and evening. Winds will stay out of the west to SW at
10kt or less with some higher gust with the expected convection.
Will also see some MVFR ceilings and vsbys with the shra/tsra. The
precipitation should diminish by 04z-06z with some MVFR ceilings
moving back in after 09z Tue.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium all elements except high for winds.

01

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 86 66 82 64 / 50 30 40 20
Atlanta 83 67 81 65 / 50 40 50 20
Blairsville 77 60 78 58 / 50 30 30 20
Cartersville 82 66 80 63 / 50 40 50 20
Columbus 86 70 84 67 / 50 30 40 20
Gainesville 81 65 80 64 / 50 30 40 20
Macon 88 69 86 66 / 50 30 40 20
Rome 81 66 81 62 / 50 40 50 20
Peachtree City 84 66 81 64 / 50 40 50 20
Vidalia 93 72 91 70 / 30 20 40 20

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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