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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
248 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017

Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
cold front remains along the mid Mississippi River valley while a
warm front stretches across the Great Lakes to the middle Atlantic.
This means that the County warning forecast area remains firmly in the warm sector.

Scattered showers have developed across portions of northern Georgia this
afternoon. Do expect this trend to continue during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon. There is some surface instability for storms
to work with, but lapse rates and shear remain fairly weak. A few
strong storms are possible, but severe weather is not anticipated at
this time.

A frontal boundary begins to push east of the Mississippi River by
late Monday afternoon. With the County warning forecast area in the warm sector with good
southerly flow, temps will remain above normal. With the available
low level moisture, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain
possible, mainly during the afternoon hours. There is a little more
support for storms tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave moves east in
the flow, helping to steepen lapse rates. There will also be a few
more hundred joules of cape around for the surface instability.
Once again, a few strong storms are possible.

Patchy fog will be possible overnight, especially where it rains.


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Tuesday, on the back-side of a low pressure system/upper level wave,
a remnant surface boundary may result in just enough lift and low
lvl convergence to support a few showers/isolated storms. Otherwise,
upper level ridging will build across the southeast region with a brief
period of rain/storm-free weather Tuesday evening into the first
part of Wednesday.

A significant storm system will move over the southern/Central
Plains Wednesday. Medium-range models showing some convective
development possible along that remnant stationary boundary that
begins to Orient itself northwest to southeast from north Alabama to south
Georgia. Most areas will likely remain dry and warm with Max temps
expected to reach the 80s for many locations.

The unseasonably warm air will set the stage for potential severe
weather sometime Thursday into Friday, as the aforementioned central
and Southern Plains storm system moves toward the mid Mississippi
Valley/upper Midwest. Southern stream energy will interact with a
warm/unstable and moderate-shear environment to support strong to
severe thunderstorms. Too early to say how severe at this point,
especially given model inconsistencies with the exact track and
positioning of this system -- but safe to say the broader-scale
synoptic pattern is setting up for a potentially active end to the
work week across the deep south.



18z update...
excellent cu field has developed across northern Georgia this
afternoon. Do expect the cu to remain bkn for the remainder of the
afternoon into the early evening hours. Hi-res models have backed
off on the coverage of storms this afternoon/eve, but do think the
best possibility remains along and north of atl. Little, if any,
chance for thunder. Patchy MVFR fog is likely overnight,
especially where it rains. Good MVFR cu field expected again
tomorrow. Winds may flirt with due south or even southeast
overnight, for a very brief period. However, speeds remain 5kt or
less. Southeast winds with gusts to around 15kt anticipated on Monday.
Scattered showers/iso tsra possible tomorrow afternoon.

//Atl confidence...18z update...
medium confidence all elements.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 58 80 58 78 / 20 30 50 30
Atlanta 60 78 60 77 / 20 30 40 30
Blairsville 54 72 55 72 / 20 40 60 40
Cartersville 58 76 59 77 / 20 40 50 40
Columbus 60 81 61 80 / 20 30 20 30
Gainesville 57 76 58 75 / 20 40 50 30
Macon 59 83 59 82 / 20 30 20 30
Rome 57 77 59 77 / 20 40 60 40
Peachtree City 57 79 58 77 / 20 30 40 30
Vidalia 60 83 61 84 / 10 30 20 20


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...


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