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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1151 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Aviation.../18z taf cycle/

VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon and will
persist until 10-12z Sunday morning. Lower ceilings and isolated to
scattered rain showers will develop beginning early Sunday morning from
southwest to northeast. Ksat/kssf/kdrt will be impacted first with
lowering MVFR ceilings then to IFR by 15-18z. Kaus will be slightly
delayed of the MVFR and IFR ceilings but will follow suite a few
hours later near 13-14z and approach low-end MVFR to high-end IFR
16-18z. Rain showers will likely shift across the ksat/kssf/kaus taf sites
mid-morning through mid-evening. Have placed vcsh in for now and will
let future cycles place timing of the rain showers better given their
scattered nature. Kdrt will recover to VFR through the afternoon but
ksat/kssf/kaus will remain IFR and MVFR through Sunday evening and
potentially into Monday morning.

Surface winds will be northeast this afternoon near 10 knots with
some gusts to near 20 knots at times. Winds will weaken through the
late afternoon to near 6-10 knots and continue overnight. Winds will
become more easterly through Sunday but remain light near 4-8 knots.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

Short term (today through sunday)...
surface high pressure will remain in place across south central Texas
today. Despite plenty of sunshine, high temperatures will average roughly
5 degrees below normal. Surface high pressure begins to migrate
eastward tonight and this will trend out winds to a more east to
southeasterly direction. Clear skies will continue across all areas
this evening, but with some return flow along the Rio Grande, we
could see some low clouds develop towards sunrise Sunday morning.
Southerly flow in the low-levels will remain intact on Sunday and
this will lead to increasing cloud cover and a warming trend for all
areas. We also expect a few showers to develop within the low-level
warm air advection pattern and will mention a 20-30% chance for rain
across most areas.

Long term (sunday night through friday)...
we will continue to see an increase in moisture along with a low
chance for showers early next week. Rain chances will be favored
primarily for areas along and east of I-35. We can't completely rule
out the chance for some thunderstorms as well and have included a
mention of this in the latest forecast. At this time, rainfall
amounts should remain low, generally 1/4" or less. However, we did
notice some locally higher amounts advertised in the European model (ecmwf) model and
will continue to monitor subsequent model data. Rain chances will end
on Wednesday as a cold front sweeps across the area during the
morning hours. Behind the front, dry weather along with near normal
temperatures can be expected through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 43 69 60 80 62 / 0 30 30 30 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 39 70 61 80 62 / 0 30 30 30 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 43 71 61 80 61 / 0 30 20 20 10
Burnet Muni Airport 41 67 57 78 59 / 0 20 30 30 10
del Rio Intl Airport 48 74 55 85 56 / 0 10 10 - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 42 68 58 79 61 / 0 30 30 30 10
Hondo Muni Airport 44 72 59 84 60 / 0 20 20 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 43 71 61 80 62 / 0 30 30 30 10
La Grange - Fayette regional 43 74 63 80 64 / 0 30 30 30 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 45 72 62 82 62 / 0 30 20 20 10
Stinson Muni Airport 45 73 62 82 63 / 0 30 20 20 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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