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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
243 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Short term (today through friday)...
the shortwave that is bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms to
the Houston area this afternoon will continue to push eastward and
weaken through the evening and overnight hours. In its wake weak
isentropic lift combined with the low level jet across West Texas
could produce a few isolated showers/storms over the Edwards Plateau
and Rio Grande plains through the night.

Friday will see the typical summertime sea breeze showers and storms
as high pressure continues to sit over the arklatex region.
Temperatures will continue to run 2-4 degrees above normal for highs
with afternoon heat index values in the mid to upper 90s due to the
Gulf moisture in place across central Texas

&&

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
the high pressure holds on for one more day Saturday, with only
isolated showers and storms possible. By Sunday a large upper trough
digs into The Four Corners region and chances for rain begin to rise.
The trough of low pressure slowly pushes eastward so rain chances
will begin along the Rio Grande plains Sunday into Monday and then
spread eastward for Tuesday through Thursday. The trough helps to
push a cold front, equally slow moving, down into Texas. While there
is some disagreement between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS as to the timing of
the front it will act to only enhance rain chances mid week.
Precipitable water values will range from 1.75-2.25 inches due to
the continued southerly flow ahead of the trough. The best chances
for rain across south central Texas look to be Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday. With the increased cloud cover and rainfall temperatures
early next week will be kept in the upper 80s with indications of at
least slightly cooler temperatures behind the cold front (whenever it
finally comes through). This far out it is too early to pinpoint
when the heaviest rainfall will occur and where. A lot will depend on
the timing of the cold front, which the models still disagree on.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 93 76 91 73 92 / 20 20 10 10 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 75 91 71 92 / 20 20 20 10 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 75 91 72 92 / 20 20 20 10 20
Burnet Muni Airport 91 73 89 71 90 / 20 20 10 10 -
del Rio Intl Airport 97 77 94 75 93 / 10 20 10 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 93 74 91 71 91 / 20 20 10 10 -
Hondo Muni Airport 97 76 94 74 95 / 20 30 10 10 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 93 75 91 72 92 / 20 20 20 10 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 92 74 91 72 92 / 30 20 20 10 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 94 76 91 74 92 / 20 20 20 10 20
Stinson Muni Airport 94 76 92 74 92 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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