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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
640 am CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Aviation...
forecast will be dependent mainly on the mesoscale features today
through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are currently approaching
The Hill Country and south central Texas from north central Texas and
the coastal plains. Expect them into the kaus area around 13z or so.
Elsewhere, have vcsh starting at 16z as heating, a cold front, and
boundary collisions generate additional showers and thunderstorms
later this morning through Sunday. Timing is uncertain for the most
part and largely dependent on boundary locations and speed. Areas of
IFR/MVFR cigs generally lift to VFR by midday, then lower back to
IFR/MVFR later this evening into overnight. Brief IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys
are possible in showers and thunderstorms. South to southeast winds
5 to 12 kts will prevail, except east to northeast behind the front
and variable with gusts up to 45 kts in and near the stronger
thunderstorms.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

Short term (today through sunday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed a broad, shallow trough over
the country with the flow over Texas from the northwest. At the
surface, a cold front was stretched from south of Dallas to San
Angelo to Van Horn. Ahead of the front, winds across our County Warning Area were
generally light from the southeast to south. The upper pattern will
be stagnant across the southern part of the country during this
period. The cold front will move into our County Warning Area and stall. This will
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region. The better
chances will be across the north and east. While conditions are not
favorable for widespread severe thunderstorms, as we saw Friday
night, any storms that do form could produce strong wind gusts. This
will be especially true in places where storms form after significant
heating during the day. Rain chances will continue Saturday night
and Sunday with the front stalled across our County Warning Area. The combination of
the cold front and cloudy skies will keep temperatures down
significantly from the near records on Friday.

Long term (sunday night through friday)...
the front will remain stalled across our eastern area Monday and
Tuesday and rain chances will continue. Wednesday the subtropical
ridge will build in from the west pushing chances for convection to
the eastern half of the County Warning Area for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday a
weakening of the ridge may allow isolated showers and thunderstorms
to spread back across the entire area.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 91 73 89 72 89 / 50 50 50 40 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 72 88 71 89 / 50 50 40 40 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 73 89 71 89 / 50 40 50 40 50
Burnet Muni Airport 88 71 85 70 86 / 50 40 50 40 50
del Rio Intl Airport 96 76 93 74 93 / 30 30 30 30 40
Georgetown Muni Airport 89 71 87 70 88 / 50 50 40 40 40
Hondo Muni Airport 95 74 92 72 91 / 40 40 40 40 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 91 73 89 71 89 / 50 50 40 40 50
La Grange - Fayette regional 90 74 89 73 89 / 50 40 50 40 50
San Antonio Intl Airport 94 74 91 73 91 / 40 40 40 40 40
Stinson Muni Airport 94 75 91 73 91 / 40 30 40 40 40

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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