Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
644 am CDT Thu Mar 23 2017
Aviation.../12z taf cycle/
Predominant MVFR ceilings are ongoing with even brief mixouts to VFR
at kssf. However, have kept MVFR cigs in place at kssf through 15z
as low clouds are nearby and VFR improvements should be short lived.
South to southeast winds have already started to pick up this morning
and this low-level wind flow is keeping visibilities up above 6sm as
well as ceilings not likely falling to IFR over the next 3-4 hours.
VFR conditions should return through mid to late morning hours across
Big story of the day will be the strong winds from the south/
southeast. Sustained surface winds will be near 20-30 mph most
locations with even higher values across The Hill Country and
southern Edwards Plateau where gusts could reach upwards of 40 to 45
mph at times. A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 11am through
MVFR ceilings are expected to return late tonight onto Friday morning
with some light drizzle possible for kaus/ksat/kssf near 12z Friday
morning. Confidence is low at this point and have refrained from
placing in tafs at this time. Strong storms could be possible
tomorrow afternoon but appear they will be east of kaus/ksat/kssf at
Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/
Short term (today through friday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge over the middle of the
country and a trough along the West Coast. At the surface, a cold
front stretched from central Utah to the northern Baja Peninsula.
Closer to home, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds
across our County Warning Area were from the southeast. An upper level low will close
off as the West Coast trough moves to the east. It will move across
The Rockies today and tonight. This will push the surface front to
our western border by the evening and through our County Warning Area overnight and
during the day Friday. Ahead of the front today the pressure gradient
will tighten and winds will be strong and gusty this afternoon
especially across the northern counties. Will issue a Wind Advisory
starting late morning and continuing through midnight. Winds could
gust up to 45 mph. As the cold front moves through our area it will
bring showers and thunderstorms starting across the north this
evening spreading across the rest of the area overnight and into
Friday. The best chances for convection will be during the day Friday
in the east. Storm Prediction Center still has a small part of our County Warning Area in a slight risk
for severe thunderstorms and much of our eastern half in a marginal
risk. Forecast soundings show a Low Cape/high shear environment. This
suggests the most likely hazard will be damaging wind gusts.
Ingredients look better farther northeast outside of our County Warning Area.
Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
the front will move away from our area Friday night and there will
only be a slight chance for thunderstorms in the extreme east. The
weekend will be dry as high pressure moves in. Sunday night another
frontal system will move through Texas, but a lack of moisture will
mean only a slight chance for precipitation and only over the
northeast. Another frontal system will move into the region bringing
a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 86 66 82 56 83 / - 20 60 - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 65 81 54 82 / - 20 60 - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 65 82 54 83 / 10 20 60 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 82 62 80 51 80 / 0 30 60 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 85 61 85 53 85 / 10 20 - 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 84 65 80 52 80 / - 20 60 10 0
Hondo Muni Airport 85 64 85 52 86 / 10 20 40 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 85 66 81 53 83 / 10 20 60 - 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 86 67 81 59 81 / 0 10 70 20 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 85 66 83 55 84 / 10 20 50 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 85 65 83 55 84 / 10 10 50 0 0
Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for the
following counties: Burnet...Edwards...Gillespie...Kerr...Kinney...