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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
251 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
showers and thunderstorms were developing along and east of the
Interstate 35 corridor this afternoon and moving northward. Storm Prediction Center
mesoanalysis continues to show peak precipitable water values of well over 2"
with high precip efficiency in this area along with MUCAPE values
of 2000+ j/kg. As a result...the potentiality of isolated heavy
rainfall resulting in quick accumulations over an inch are
possible throughout the rest of the afternoon along and east of
the 35 corridor. Also seeing development along the crp/ewx border
and Rio Grande this afternoon, however this activity is moving
northward into a slightly less favorable environment of lower
instability and deep layer moisture. Hi-res models have kept this
area (on the escarpment) for the most part dry. Outflows from the
eastern activity could develop a few isolated cells however, so
kept at least slight chance pops in out west.

Activity should wane quickly at or shortly after 00z. A return of
low clouds overnight will keep tomorrow morning mostly cloudy
through day break. Rain chances begin to wane considerably
beginning tomorrow and into the weekend while temperatures rise
with building high pressure aloft.

&&

Long term (saturday through thursday)...
aforementioned high pressure will work to build over the central
US and dry out/thicken the atmosphere through the weekend. A
gradual decrease in moisture and increase in temperatures
throughout the next week will be in store. Due to the rainfall
over the last few days and today, surface moisture should linger
perhaps through Sunday but drop off considerably by Monday. Relative humidity
analysis shows min relative humidity values starting to drop into the 20 percent
range by Monday and Tuesday resulting in likely the typical
scenario of elevated fire weather conditions in the west and
elevated heat indices (105-110) east and southeast. These should
be the primary weather concerns next week as far as hazards are
concerned.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 97 76 98 77 / 10 - 0 10 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 96 74 96 75 / 10 - 0 10 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 95 74 96 75 / - - - 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 74 95 74 95 75 / 10 - 0 - 0
del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 77 99 77 / 10 10 0 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 76 96 75 96 77 / 10 - - - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 74 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 - -
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 95 74 95 75 / 10 - - 10 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 76 96 75 97 77 / 20 10 - 10 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 77 94 76 95 77 / 10 - 0 10 -
Stinson Muni Airport 76 96 76 96 77 / - - 0 10 -

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...Allen
synoptic/grids...tb3
public service/data collection...Williams

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