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fxus64 kewx 222356 
afdewx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
656 PM CDT sun Oct 22 2017

Update...
see below for the 00z aviation discussion...

&&

Aviation...
currently VFR at all taf sites under clear skies. VFR will prevail
for the entire forecast period at all sites. Winds are still slightly
elevated (up to 10 knots) at aus/Sat/ssf, but should come down by
2z. Winds will remain out of the north for the entire forecast
period at aus/Sat/ssf with winds becoming southeasterly at drt by
early Monday morning.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 247 PM CDT sun Oct 22 2017/

Short term (tonight through Monday night)...
with this morning's front pushed well south of the County Warning Area this
afternoon, all that remains is north winds and mostly clear skies.
Wind fields have remained below what much of the guidance was
anticipating and as a result have tempered wind grids down for the
rest of the afternoon.

Tonight, a surface high will move south and sit itself overtop of the
County Warning Area resulting in nearly calm winds. This, in combination with clear
skies, will result in an exceptional radiational cooling set up for
much of the cwa, especially in The Hill Country where the literal
center of the high pressure is progged to be positioned by 12z
tomorrow morning. These situations tend to result in guidance
performing quite poorly, and with the last cold front passage, lows
were too warm by 5-8 degrees in some instances. Thus, have undercut
guidance lows significantly overnight tonight.

Long term (tuesday through sunday)...
another frontal passage will pass through Tuesday morning, but
compared to today's will likely go unnoticed other than the dropping
high temperatures again into the mid to upper 70s and maintaining
chilly overnight lows through the week.

The only potential weather hazard will be fire weather concerns
Tuesday with the passage of the aforementioned front. Sustained winds
of 10-20 mph and afternoon relative humidity values falling into the upper teens and
low 20s across the County Warning Area will result in elevated fire weather
conditions during the afternoon Tuesday.

Moving through the week, yet another strong cold front is continuing
to be advertised Friday which should be the knock-out punch that
brings some morning lows below the 40 degree mark Saturday in The
Hill Country and keeps the region cool for more than a day. In fact,
day 7 mex and ece guidance shows highs in the upper 60s for the
northern half of the County Warning Area next weekend. Although it is Worth
mentioning that ensemble members varied by 20+ degrees so confidence
is not high as of yet. But given the consistency in model runs so far
in this next front, do believe it will be the coolest weekend of the
season thus far.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 51 82 54 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 46 81 52 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 48 81 52 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 46 80 51 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 51 82 55 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 46 81 51 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 46 82 52 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 47 81 52 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 50 80 52 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 49 82 54 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 51 82 54 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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