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FXUS64 KEWX 252029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
229 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Light north winds continue across the region with a few areas of
clouds present. Temperatures are cooler than previous days with
current values in the 50s and 60s across the region. The center of
the post-frontal surface high is near the Texas/Oklahoma border and
it will be shifting to the east this evening and overnight. This will
allow the northerly winds to become more easterly this evening and
southerly across the western half of the CWA by morning. Lows tonight
will be near last night's values where winds remain easterly, but
will be a bit higher across the western CWA where southerly flow is
expected to prevail. 

Zonal flow is currently in place across the southern CONUS, but a
small but strong upper low can be seen nearing the California coast.
By tomorrow afternoon, the upper low will be weaker but will
approaching Texas. Models are in good agreement that strong 
southerly flow will develop in response to the approaching trough. 
This should be a fairly good setup for enough lift for the 
development of some warm-air advection showers. Forecast soundings 
show sufficient lapse rates for precip production underneath a 
capping inversion at 750 mb. For tomorrow, think we should see a 
decent coverage of scattered showers for the eastern half of the area
and will show 30/40 PoPs. The inversion should lift by tomorrow 
night and then we could see some thunderstorms develop during the 
night time hours. Highs tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows
Sunday night increasing to the 50s and 60s with the strong southerly
flow expected to be in place. 


.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Southwest flow aloft will remain in place in the wake of the upper
trough and will keep some low PoPs in the forecast through Monday
afternoon. For Tuesday a strong longwave trough is expected to be
approaching the region from the west and this feature will help
continue rain chances for Tuesday afternoon. As this trough moves
through the Central Plains on Wednesday and it allow a decent cold
front to surge southward into Texas Wednesday morning. Medium-range
guidance is showing the potential for some light showers along and
near the frontal boundary for the southeastern CWA and will show low
PoPs for Wednesday morning in this location. 

Temperatures ahead of the front are expected to climb back into the
80s for most of the area on Monday and Tuesday. Post-frontal on
Thursday, we should see highs back in the 60s and lower 70s. Winds on
Wednesday behind the front should be breezy, from the north around 15
to 25 mph possible. Models are in good agreement that a southern
trough in a split flow pattern will move into South-Texas sometime
around Friday night or Saturday and will provide another chance of
rain to the area for this time frame. 


Austin Camp Mabry              44  69  60  81  62 /  -   40  30  20  10 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  42  69  60  80  62 /  -   40  30  20  10 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     44  71  60  81  62 /  -   30  20  20  10 
Burnet Muni Airport            43  66  56  79  59 /  -   30  30  30  10 
Del Rio Intl Airport           50  75  53  84  56 /   0  10  10   0   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        41  67  58  80  61 /  -   30  30  30  10 
Hondo Muni Airport             46  73  57  85  61 /   0  20  20  10  10 
San Marcos Muni Airport        44  70  60  80  62 /  -   40  20  20  10 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   44  72  63  79  65 /  -   40  30  20  10 
San Antonio Intl Airport       47  72  60  82  63 /   0  30  20  10  10 
Stinson Muni Airport           47  72  61  82  63 /   0  30  20  10  10 



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