Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kewx 250156 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
856 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017


Showers and thunderstorms from this morning and afternoon have
dissipated and vacated the region. High-res models (hrrr, namnest)
suggest that most of south central Texas will more than likely stay
dry for the remainder of the evening and through at least Sunday
morning. A few isolated showers remain possible given the stationary
front still in place along a Sanderson to Kerrville to Austin to
College Station line. Instability has been mostly used up from the
earlier convection, with the exception being elevated cape values
along the southern Edwards Plateau. Pops for tonight have been
decreased slightly to reflect this.


Previous discussion... /issued 626 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

Aviation.../00z update/
VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening. All convection
has moved out of the region or dissipated. May see convection
develop or begin to move into the area late tonight or towards Sunday
morning. Models and soundings continue to suggest that MVFR cigs
will develop between 08z-11z. VFR conditions will return in the 16z-
18z period. Will see scattered convection begin after 16z and
continue through sunset. For the current forecast have included vcsh
after 16z since location and timing of convection is not certain at
this time. Winds will generally be easterly at 5-10 knots, but
variable and gusty in or near any convection.

Previous discussion... /issued 241 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated over the coastal
prairies through the early evening after a strong morning outflow
brought a portion of the cold front through the area. The frontal
push is forecast to wash out tonight with return flow and tropical
moisture expected to interact with continued instability from a northwest
flow pattern aloft. Pops for tonight may be skewed to address chances
in the evening and the predawn hours, with many model solutions
showing minimal activity in the late night hours. Several solutions
indicate another round of instability and enhanced rain chances to
arrive from the northwest toward daybreak. With the heat bubble deflated
from this morning, future storm chances should be mostly of a garden
variety, but cumulative rainfall totals may lead to a localized
flood threat over the isolated areas that saw 2 to 4 inch rain totals

Rain chances should continue into daytime Sunday with the mid-level
ridging feature continuing to break down to the west. With a fully
developed northwest flow pattern in place, rain chances will be somewhat
balanced between day and night going forward. Additional reinforcing
effects will be provided by a moisture fetch wrapping around the
northern edge of a TUTT low that has moved into the wrn Gulf.

Long term (monday through saturday)...
while the TUTT low over the Gulf lifts and gets absorbed into central
US troughing Monday, the northwest flow pattern aloft remains intact over
Texas through Tuesday. Pwat values hold in the 1.6-2.0 inch range for
the most part during this period which should help support the
unstable northwest flow pattern with at least low chance pops through
Tuesday night. Mid level ridging is expected to build and force an
eastward retreat of rain chances Wednesday, but upper troughing over
the Texas coast will continue to enable tropical and mostly daytime
convection over the coastal prairies Wednesday through Friday.
Moisture moderated temperatures can be expected through Tuesday with
a warming trend building in from the west Wednesday through Friday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 71 88 72 89 71 / 30 40 40 40 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 88 71 89 71 / 30 40 40 50 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 88 71 89 71 / 30 40 40 40 40
Burnet Muni Airport 70 86 70 86 70 / 30 40 40 40 40
del Rio Intl Airport 76 92 73 92 73 / 30 30 40 40 40
Georgetown Muni Airport 70 86 70 87 70 / 30 40 40 40 40
Hondo Muni Airport 74 91 72 91 71 / 30 40 40 40 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 88 71 89 71 / 30 40 40 40 40
La Grange - Fayette regional 74 89 73 89 73 / 30 50 40 50 30
San Antonio Intl Airport 74 89 72 91 72 / 30 40 40 40 40
Stinson Muni Airport 75 90 73 91 73 / 30 40 40 40 40


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations