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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1232 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016

Aviation...
cigs have lifted to VFR in Austin and San Antonio, but remain MVFR
at drt. Expect drt to improve to VFR within the next hour or so.
All terminals should then be VFR through the afternoon and
evening. There is a very low chance for showers or thunderstorms
this afternoon and early evening, chances are too low to include
in the tafs. Main concern with convection will be lightning, don't
expect any category change. Cigs will lower again overnight to
MVFR at all airports. Improvement to VFR will come late morning
Saturday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1054 am CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/

Update...

Low clouds continue to slowly clear and vertically lift this
morning which is allowing temperatures to increase into the low to
mid 80s near the 11am hour. Have added slightly greater rain
chances for The Hill Country given water vapor imagery of enhanced
moisture in this region along a shear axis. Hi-resolution models
are trending with slightly greater coverage in this area and will
add a low 20% chance. Showers/storms are expected along the Texas
coast again but with lower coverage than previous days. Metro
areas appear to be south of the moisture shear axis and may be too
far northeast from the coastal plains sea-breeze influence to see
much activity today. Have left weather mention out for now
through the afternoon and will monitor trends. Heat indices will
increase into the 102-106 range for the coastal plains 3-7pm where
the showers miss.

Other than small tweaks to the going temperature, dewpoint, and
rain chances, no other major updates were made to the going
forecast.

Previous discussion... /issued 357 am CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/

Short term (today through saturday)...

Enhanced pwat values over south central TX this morning should
disperse at a more rapid clip today as satellite imagery shows
drier and more subsident mid-level air pinching away from the
northwest and southeast. Some weak cyclonic shear over the Rio Grande plains and
srn Edwards Plateau may generate some spotty convection while the
deepest remaining moist layer over the coastal prairies could do
the same. Subsidence aloft should take over the remaining areas as
a mid level ridge axis to the northwest expands east into north central
Texas. No activity is expected in the tonight period, and the chance
of rain should shrink southeast over the coastal prairies on
Sunday.

High temperatures were curbed by more than expected convection
Thursday, and the moderated temp trend should continue into
today, with many areas still near seasonal normals. With
increasing stability and light to moderate winds. High humidities
should again lead to spotty heat index values of 104 to 107 today
mainly along and east of I-35.

Long term (saturday night through thursday)...

Model consensus is showing a consistent pattern of increased
mid to upper level ridging over Texas with the anticyclone center
concentrating over the eastern half of Texas by Monday and covering
much of Texas by Wednesday. This pattern should promote rapid
afternoon daytime drying over the weekend into early next week,
and a return to most areas seeing upper 90s and triple digit heat
by Monday.

Soil and vegetation moisture getting a boost from recent rain and
continued light to moderate winds should send heat indices higher,
especially early to middle of next week. Hi values of 108 to 112
are forecast for Monday through Thursday with highest values again
expected along and east of I-35. Heat advisories may be needed.

During this same period, afternoon drying, locally higher winds
and less impact from recent rainfall should lead to more elevated
fire weather conditions over the srn Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande plains.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 97 76 98 76 / - - 0 - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 96 75 97 74 / - - 0 - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 97 74 97 74 / - 10 0 - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 74 96 74 96 74 / - - 0 - 0
del Rio Intl Airport 77 98 77 99 77 / 10 10 - - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 75 96 76 96 76 / - - 0 - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 73 97 74 97 74 / - - 0 - 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 96 75 96 75 / - 10 0 - 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 95 76 96 76 / - 20 - 10 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 76 96 77 97 76 / - - 0 - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 76 98 77 98 76 / - 10 0 - 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...05
synoptic/grids...Allen
public service/data collection...Williams

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