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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Aviation... /18z tafs/

VFR skies and light to moderate S/southeast winds should last through
midnight at the taf sites. Scattered convection and a weak frontal
zone will threaten to impact the taf sites late tonight into daytime
Saturday. Deterministic raw model solutions suggest higher coverage
of convection that do the numerical MOS guidances; will favor the
more conservative MOS forecasts, given the raw solutions are in poor
agreement with each other and no solution suggests a credible mesoscale convective system
threat. Expect the mid-level ridging to provide good resistance to
the first wave of instability unless a significant MCV were to take
shape over the next 18 hours. Will allow for a vcsh suggestion for
aus late in the taf period, and await better model clarification.
Expect considerable cloud debris from North Texas convection to interrupt
some of the early morning MVFR cigs, but will keep with a prevailing
MVFR cig for much of the pre-dawn hours along I-35.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 341 am CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

Short term (today through saturday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed a weak trough over Texas. At
the surface, winds were generally light from the southeast across our
County Warning Area. There was a cold front moving into the northern Panhandle. High
pressure centered over the Gulf will continue to dominate today with
hot conditions. High temperatures this afternoon will be near records
in some places. The hot temperatures combined with high relative
humidity will send heat indices to between 108 and 114 this afternoon
for most of the County Warning Area outside of The Hill Country. We will issue a
heat advisory for this afternoon. Tonight the cold front will
approach our area and Saturday it will move in. This will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Tonight chances will be low and
be confined to the north and east. Saturday chances will increase
and spread across most of the area with only the southwest having
almost no chance. This front will also bring relief from the extreme
high temperatures.

Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
the front will stall across our northeastern area and rain chances
will continue from Saturday night through Tuesday. Convection will be
diurnally driven and there will be better chances for precipitation
during the days Sunday through Tuesday. Precipitable water will be above normal and
there is a slight chance for locally heavy rainfall. By Wednesday the
subtropical ridge will build back over Texas from the west and will
reduce rain chances and push them to the east.

Climate...
record high temperatures for today.
San Antonio 102
Austin Bergstrom 103
Austin Camp Mabry 103
del Rio 106

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 100 77 91 73 89 / 0 20 50 30 50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 76 91 73 89 / 0 10 50 30 50
New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 76 92 72 89 / 0 10 50 30 50
Burnet Muni Airport 99 75 87 71 86 / 0 20 40 30 50
del Rio Intl Airport 105 79 96 74 93 / 0 10 20 20 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 99 75 89 71 87 / 0 20 40 30 50
Hondo Muni Airport 103 77 95 73 92 / 0 10 30 30 50
San Marcos Muni Airport 99 77 92 72 89 / 0 10 40 30 50
La Grange - Fayette regional 97 77 91 74 89 / - 20 50 40 50
San Antonio Intl Airport 101 78 93 74 90 / 0 10 40 30 50
Stinson Muni Airport 101 78 93 74 91 / 0 10 40 30 50

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bastrop...Bexar...Burnet...Caldwell...Comal...
De Witt...Dimmit...Fayette...frio...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...
Karnes...Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Maverick...Medina...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

$$

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