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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1253 am CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Aviation.../06z tafs/
VFR conditions will persist through most of the overnight hours
until ceilings lower to borderline MVFR-IFR between 10-12z at all
taf sites. Patchy fog may develop after 10-11z at the I-35 taf
sites, particularly at aus where skies are currently clear and
local conditions are more favorable for more persistent fog
development. Thus, have included IFR visibilities and ceilings
after 12z at aus where confidence in their development is highest
and have left them out at all other sites where an overcast 050-060
cloud deck is keeping temperatures and dew point depressions up a
bit. VFR conditions should return to the I-35 taf sites by 17z and
drt an hour or two later with S-southeast winds at 6-12 knots.


Previous discussion... /issued 651 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

00z aviation update below.

a few weak shras possible vicinity of ssf through 02z, before
dissipating. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the evening hours.
Guidance is suggesting stratus and fog developing across the
region 09z-12z. Low level winds area weakest near and east of I-35
with relatively stronger low level jet along the Rio Grande. The
weaker winds should allow for IFR ceilings to develop by 12z at
I-35 corridor taf sites of Sat/ssf/aus as well as through portions
of The Hill Country and east of the I-35 corridor. Some guidance
suggests fog developing near baz-aus by 12z, producing IFR to
possibly LIFR ceilings and visibility. Out along the Rio Grande
and drt, MVFR ceilings are expected during this time. Ceilings
and visibility will rise 15z-17z at Sat/ssf/aus with VFR
conditions re-developing. The MVFR ceilings may hold over drt and
portions of The Hill Country into the mid afternoon.

Previous discussion... /issued 239 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...
the shortwave trough which provided enough lift for some showers
and even isolated thunderstorms is moving east of the forecast
area. Thus, activity has diminished in coverage and latest high-
res model guidance shows this trend continuing. Can't rule out an
additional isolated shower late this afternoon or evening, but the
chances are too low to mention in the forecast. Cloud cover should
remain in place for much of the area tonight and this will keep
low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. For tomorrow, another
shortwave trough will be passing through the Central Plains. This
feature will be farther north than today's system and therefore
should not provide enough upward vertical motions for shower
production. High temperatures tomorrow will top out in the lower
to middle 80s. Much of the same is expected tomorrow night with
dry conditions and lows similar to tonight.

Long term (wednesday through monday)...
on Wednesday, the shortwave will be moving into the Ohio Valley
with upper level high pressure increasing to our west. This high
will be in place and will have an influence on south-central Texas
weather through much of the long-term forecast. This will keep
conditions rain-free with mostly clear skies. Highs temperatures
will average in the lower to middle 80s with lows bottoming out in
the lower to middle 60s. All in all, conditions will not be too
bad over the next seven days.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 84 64 85 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 61 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 61 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 81 62 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 82 65 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 83 61 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 85 62 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 83 62 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 84 62 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 83 63 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 85 63 85 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 0


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...



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