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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
647 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

/00z tafs/
VFR will prevail across the area airports through the forecast
period. Northerly winds will dominate the area through Friday.
Gusty winds up 25 knots are possible early this evening in the
wake of the cold front. Wind speeds will relax a bit tonight into
Friday while averaging 8 to 10 knots. Clear skies are expected for
much of the forecast period.


Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the main synoptic cold
front are beginning to push south of our cwa, with only a few
cells in southern Dimmit and Maverick counties left. Additional
redevelopment behind the front is not expected due to isentropic
descent and a drier air mass behind the front which has helped
clear out skies across the northern half of the region. Skies
will continue to clear across the southern half, but anvil from
thunderstorms will allow clouds to persist a few more hours for
our southern tier of counties. Strong 15-20 mile per hour winds
out of the north with gusts to 30-35 miles per hour will persist
behind the front through late afternoon before subsiding to 10-15
miles per hour overnight. These winds should be strong enough to
keep low temperatures in the low to mid 50s tonight for most
locations despite clear skies, with The Hill Country and other
lower-lying areas seeing some upper 40s.

Northerly winds tomorrow will remain around 10-15 miles per hour
in the morning before beginning to subside below 10 miles per hour
during the afternoon. This will setup the nicest day we have seen
in quite some time with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s
under sunny skies. Lows on Friday night will be the coolest of the
forecast period as light winds and clear skies allow for strong
radiational cooling with lows ranging from the lower 40s in The
Hill Country to lower 50s in the Rio Grande plains.

Long term (saturday through thursday)...
temperatures will increase a few degrees on Saturday as a
midlevel ridge of high pressure is centered over south central
Texas and weak southerly winds begin to return to the region. Lows
Saturday night will still be in the upper 40s to mid 50s across
most of the region. Southerly winds pick up on Sunday ahead of a
weak midlevel disturbance to allow temperatures and cloud cover to
increase further with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows in
the lower 60s near seasonal normals. The GFS suggests that some
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the weak
disturbance and some weak isentropic ascent on Monday and Tuesday.
However, other models do not really show any quantitative precipitation forecast with this system
as the moisture return and instability will most likely be too
limited to support more than very isolated coverage. Thus, have
left this out of the forecast for now and have a dry seven-day
forecast as an upper level ridge returns to the weekend for the
second half of next week with temperatures about five degrees
above normal for late October.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 55 78 49 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 54 77 45 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 78 47 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 51 75 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 55 77 51 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 52 76 46 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 53 80 46 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 54 78 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 56 78 48 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 56 78 49 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 57 79 50 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 0


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...



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