Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
303 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016
Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
another warm night is in store across the area as low level moisture
increases overnight. Dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid
70s are forecast to spread across the eastern two-thirds of
south-central Texas through the period. Will start with broken to
overcast skies on Sunday morning with clouds scattering out during
the late morning hours. Sunday's high temperatures are expected
to reach the upper 90s to 100 across much of the area and up to
104 along the Rio Grande. Heat indices are expected to reach the
102 to 111 mark east of Interstate 35 for several hours in the
afternoon (1 PM to 6 pm). A Special Weather Statement is likely to
be issued later on to give emphasis on these elevated values.
Also, there is a slight chance of rain across the coastal plains
Sunday afternoon as sea-breeze shower and thunderstorm activity
pushes further inland.
Long term (monday through saturday)...
big changes are on the way for the first part of the week. As the
subtropical ridge pushes farther to the west and into The Four
Corners region, rain chances will be increasing across the area.
Medium-range models are suggesting the development of an upper
level short-wave dropping from the northern plains into the Ohio
Valley late Monday into Tuesday. Convection along the short-wave
axis is expected to push to the southwest along the periphery of
the subtropical ridge. At the surface, remnant of a cold front
pushing across the Southern Plains in combination with a moist
southern flow will aid showers and storms to form and affect most
of south central Texas, especially Tuesday. Also, an inverted
upper level trough is forecast to move across the northern part of
the Gulf of Mexico into the Texas coast. This will bring pwats of
2 to 2.19 inches (per area forecast sounding of GFS model). With
these values in place, we are expecting rainfall accumulations of
one tenth to one quarter inch with isolated spots of 2 to 3
inches. Weather conditions will improve Tuesday evening into
Wednesday with dry conditions expected for the latter part of the
We will have a break from the upper 90s and 100 degrees days
seeing the past several days early next week due to increase in
cloud coverage and rain chances. However, this cool episode is
short-lived as dry and hot weather conditions return later in the
week into next weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 78 101 78 97 75 / - - 10 20 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 100 76 97 75 / - 10 10 20 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 100 76 98 75 / - - - 20 20
Burnet Muni Airport 76 99 76 96 74 / 0 - - 20 20
del Rio Intl Airport 80 103 80 101 80 / 0 - - 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 78 100 78 97 75 / 0 - - 30 20
Hondo Muni Airport 76 100 76 99 75 / 0 - - 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 76 100 77 97 75 / - - - 20 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 77 99 77 95 76 / 10 20 10 40 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 78 99 78 97 76 / 0 - - 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 78 102 78 99 77 / - 10 - 20 20
public service/data collection...30