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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
647 am CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Aviation...
areas of IFR/MVFR cigs have formed east of a kgtu to khyi to kpez
line. The stratus will move a little further west before mixing out
by late morning around 16z. Have prevailing cigs at kaus and tempos
at ksat and kssf. Otherwise, VFR skies prevail through this evening.
Stratus returns overnight with MVFR cigs at kaus, ksat, kssf around
06z and kdrt around 10z. Cigs lift to VFR late morning to midday on
Saturday. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are expected into The Hill Country overnight and
remainder of south central Texas Saturday as a cold front moves into
our area. Have introduced vcsh at kaus after 24/16z with impacts to
the other sites beyond their taf cycle. South to southeast winds of
5 to 10 kts increase to 10 to 20 kts and gusty late morning through
evening. Winds decrease to less than 10 kts overnight into Saturday
morning. Winds will shift to north and northeast in the wake of the
frontal passage or any thunderstorms and rain outflows overnight into Saturday morning.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 341 am CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

Short term (today through saturday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed a weak trough over Texas. At
the surface, winds were generally light from the southeast across our
County Warning Area. There was a cold front moving into the northern Panhandle. High
pressure centered over the Gulf will continue to dominate today with
hot conditions. High temperatures this afternoon will be near records
in some places. The hot temperatures combined with high relative
humidity will send heat indices to between 108 and 114 this afternoon
for most of the County Warning Area outside of The Hill Country. We will issue a
heat advisory for this afternoon. Tonight the cold front will
approach our area and Saturday it will move in. This will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Tonight chances will be low and
be confined to the north and east. Saturday chances will increase
and spread across most of the area with only the southwest having
almost no chance. This front will also bring relief from the extreme
high temperatures.

Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
the front will stall across our northeastern area and rain chances
will continue from Saturday night through Tuesday. Convection will be
diurnally driven and there will be better chances for precipitation
during the days Sunday through Tuesday. Precipitable water will be above normal and
there is a slight chance for locally heavy rainfall. By Wednesday the
subtropical ridge will build back over Texas from the west and will
reduce rain chances and push them to the east.

Climate...
record high temperatures for today.
San Antonio 102
Austin Bergstrom 103
Austin Camp Mabry 103
del Rio 106

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 100 77 91 73 89 / 0 20 50 30 50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 76 91 73 89 / 0 10 50 30 50
New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 76 92 72 89 / 0 10 50 30 50
Burnet Muni Airport 99 75 87 71 86 / 0 20 40 30 50
del Rio Intl Airport 105 79 96 74 93 / 0 10 20 20 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 99 75 89 71 87 / 0 20 40 30 50
Hondo Muni Airport 103 77 95 73 92 / 0 10 30 30 50
San Marcos Muni Airport 99 77 92 72 89 / 0 10 40 30 50
La Grange - Fayette regional 97 77 91 74 89 / - 20 50 40 50
San Antonio Intl Airport 101 78 93 74 90 / 0 10 40 30 50
Stinson Muni Airport 101 78 93 74 91 / 0 10 40 30 50

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for
the following counties: Atascosa...Bastrop...Bexar...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Fayette...frio...Gonzales...
Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Maverick...
Medina...Travis...Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

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