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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
645 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016

Aviation.../12z taf cycle/

MVFR with intermittent IFR ceilings are ongoing across
ksat/kssf/kaus. Kdrt remains VFR but will likely become MVFR over
the next hour given developing low ceilings nearby per latest
satellite imagery. Patchy ground fog is also observed across a
good portion of the coastal plains and into the I-35 corridor. The
low ceilings and ground fog will linger through 14-15z before a
gradual improvement occurs through mid to late morning with VFR
prevailing thereafter.

Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will be likely across the coastal plains this
afternoon but this activity should stay east of the taf sites and
no weather mention will be introduced into tafs. Surface winds
will be near 10-15 kt and gust to near 20 kt at times near kdrt
this afternoon. A repeat of lower ceilings and patchy ground fog is
expected once again overnight and into Friday morning.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 305 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016/

Short term (today through friday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed south to southwesterly flow
over Texas with a ridge to the east and a trough to the west.
Water vapor satellite imagery showed mid-level moisture moving
into Texas around the back side of the ridge over the southeast.
At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf was keeping winds from
the southeast. Dew point temperatures were generally one to two
degrees higher than 24 hours ago. In the short term the upper
level ridge over the southeast will shift to the northeast, but
heights over Texas will stay about the same. The increased
moisture both at the surface and in the mid-levels will likely be
sufficient to produce isolated thunderstorms over the eastern
third of the County Warning Area this afternoon and evening. With little change to
the pattern, expect convection will spread farther west and become
more scattered Friday afternoon.

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
the upper ridge will continue to move to the northeast and a split
will develop over the Southern Plains. This will mean a period of
varying chances for daytime showers and thunderstorms across our
County Warning Area. Saturday convection will be limited to the eastern half of
the area. By Sunday rain chances will spread across the entire County Warning Area
and Monday looks to be the day with the highest chances. Tuesday
will see a downward trend begin that will continue Wednesday.
Model rainfall totals are moderate, but they also show precipitable water
increasing to two inches over the east by Sunday and locally heavy
rain may be possible Sunday and Monday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 93 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 30 10 30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 73 90 73 90 / 20 20 30 10 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 73 91 73 91 / 20 10 30 10 30
Burnet Muni Airport 92 73 90 73 90 / 10 10 20 10 30
del Rio Intl Airport 95 75 94 75 94 / 0 10 10 - 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 91 74 91 74 90 / 20 10 30 10 30
Hondo Muni Airport 93 73 92 73 92 / - 10 20 10 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 91 74 90 73 90 / 20 20 30 10 30
La Grange - Fayette regional 93 75 90 75 91 / 30 30 40 10 40
San Antonio Intl Airport 92 75 91 74 92 / 20 20 20 10 20
Stinson Muni Airport 94 76 92 75 93 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...Allen
synoptic/grids...05

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