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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1051 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Aviation discussion...for 06z taf period...
building 800ft cloud deck east of I-35 may creep to the I-35 corridor
in the first 3-4 hours of the taf period but will struggle to impact
the I-35 terminals. MVFR br is still expected prior to the passage
of a cold front before daybreak. Winds will then shift to the
northwest and become breezy in the late morning and afternoon hours
resulting in Crosswinds on north/south runways.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 924 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

Update...
southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico has returned faster this
evening bringing higher dewpoints to across the I-35 corridor and
Escarpment. Hrrr and rap indicated this better than the other models
and have updated to generally follow their trends. Stratus has also
developed near the coastal plains. Expect it will push further to the
northwest and may approach the I-35 corridor overnight. Then, a
Pacific cold front will surge east pushing this deeper, yet shallow
moisture back to the coastal plains early in the morning. Otherwise,
no significant changes to the south central Texas forecast.

Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
upper air analysis this morning showed nearly zonal flow across the
southwestern US with a trough over the northern rockies. At the
surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and winds were from
the southeast to southwest. The upper level trough over the northern
rockies will swing down through the Southern Plains. A cold front
will move through North Texas tonight and our County Warning Area Friday morning. The
atmosphere is still very dry and the front will not generate any
precipitation. Behind the front, drier air will move in with breezy
northwesterly winds. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front,
but still above normal.

Long term (saturday through thursday)...
dry weather will continue Saturday. Low level winds will become
southeasterly bringing moist air back to the region. Sunday there may
be sufficient moisture and isentropic lift to produce showers and
thunderstorms. Monday another cold front will move through the region
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.
High pressure will build back in behind the front with dry weather
through the remainder of the period.

Fire weather...
relative humidity will drop below 20 percent across all of our County Warning Area
Friday afternoon. Breezy northerly winds between 10 and 15 mph will
lead to near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 57 80 42 65 45 / - 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 56 80 41 65 43 / - 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 82 42 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 52 75 37 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 54 80 44 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 55 77 39 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 53 83 41 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 56 81 41 65 44 / - 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 59 81 43 66 45 / - 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 56 83 44 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 57 83 45 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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