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fxus64 kewx 202357 
afdewx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
657 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Aviation... /00z tafs/

Slowly dying convection from weak disturbance near The Big Bend
could create some variations in the timing of the low cloud cover
forecast that reflects mostly persistence. The exception is for drt
where low clouds were added to reflect mav guidance which trended
toward more cloud cover after moisture pooling settled over the
region in the wake of the shortwave that moved through the area late
Tuesday. The taf stops just shy of showing IFR cigs for Thursday
morning, but as was seen at aus early this morning some brief dips to
below 1000 ft will be possible at any of the taf sites.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 233 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...
upper air analysis this morning showed zonal flow across the southern
US. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf and
winds across our County Warning Area were from the south to southwest. An upper level
trough will dig down along the West Coast during this period turning
the upper flow over Texas to the southwest. The low level flow will
remain southerly. An upper level short wave trough will move through
the pattern and may provide enough lift to produce isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the west tonight and spread to the east
Thursday.

Long term (friday through wednesday)...
the upper pattern will remain fairly stationary through the end of
the week with the trough digging mainly south while rotating slowly
through the southwest. Sunday an upper trough will move in from the
Gulf bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the eastern
part of our County Warning Area. The upper pattern will become more progressive
Monday with the trough moving across The Rockies and into the Central
Plains. The tail end of this trough will hang back over the southwest
and eventually close off into a low over Arizona by Tuesday night.
This will mean an extended period with chances for rain Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 77 93 74 93 72 / 10 30 10 10 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 93 73 92 71 / 10 30 10 10 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 93 74 92 71 / 10 30 10 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 74 91 72 90 70 / 10 20 10 10 -
del Rio Intl Airport 77 97 77 95 75 / 20 10 10 10 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 75 93 73 91 70 / 10 20 10 10 -
Hondo Muni Airport 77 97 75 96 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 76 93 73 92 71 / 10 30 10 10 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 75 92 73 91 71 / 10 40 10 20 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 78 94 75 92 74 / 10 20 10 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 77 94 75 93 74 / 10 20 10 20 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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