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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
630 am CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Aviation...
stratus with IFR/MVFR cigs and patchy br with MVFR vsbys will lift
while br dissipates mid morning, becoming few-scattered VFR cumulus by
midday and continuing through this evening. Stratus with IFR/MVFR
cigs will redevelop overnight. Chances for IFR cigs and br at the taf
sites this morning and overnight are low and kept them MVFR. Isolated
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are possible southeast and far west with no impacts to taf
sites expected. S to southeast winds increase to 10 to 18 kts with gusts to
25 kts late morning into afternoon, then decrease to less than 10 kts
tonight.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 313 am CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

Short term (today through wednesday)...
warm conditions will continue through the short term with highs today
and Wednesday in the low to mid 90s for most locations, and upper 90s
along the Rio Grande. Heat index values both afternoons will peak
around 104-106 degrees across southeastern counties, mid to upper 90s
across The Hill Country and 98-102 along the I-35 corridor and Rio
Grande.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be confined to southeastern
counties with the sea-breeze both afternoons. There will also be a
slight chance for convection across western Val Verde County during
the afternoons and evenings with any storms that move east off the
diffuse dry line, being aided by the tail end of a weak upper level
shortwave today. Dcape values of 1300-1500 j/kg could support a few
stronger storms across western Val Verde County, producing mainly
strong downburst winds.

Long term (wednesday night through monday)...
a slight increase in moisture will take place across south central
Texas on Thursday and perhaps give a slight chance for isolated
showers and storms to central areas of the County Warning Area. Friday through the
weekend precip chances will be primarily confined to the southeastern
counties. Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 94 76 94 76 92 / - 0 - - 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 74 93 75 92 / 10 0 - - 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 75 95 75 93 / - - - - 20
Burnet Muni Airport 93 75 93 74 91 / - 0 0 - 20
del Rio Intl Airport 97 77 98 77 96 / - - 10 10 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 93 76 94 75 91 / - 0 - - 20
Hondo Muni Airport 97 76 97 75 95 / - - - - 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 93 76 93 75 92 / - 0 - - 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 92 76 92 76 91 / 20 - 20 10 40
San Antonio Intl Airport 95 77 95 77 93 / - - - - 20
Stinson Muni Airport 96 77 96 77 95 / - - - - 20

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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