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afdewx

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
539 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Aviation.../00z taf cycle/

VFR expected through the taf period with only high passing clouds
above fl200. Surface winds will be near 10 knots for the next hour
then drop below 5 knots overnight. Winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots Wednesday and shift more southwest to westerly.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 304 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

Short term (today through wednesday)...
dry seasonal weather will prevail through the short term forecast.
Winds will diminish quickly this evening leading to a cool Wednesday
morning. Lows in the low to mid 30s are expected, with some isolated
pockets of upper 20s in drainage areas of The Hill Country. Highs
Wednesday will rebound in to the upper 60s under high cirrus
streaming into the region.

Long term (wednesday night through monday)...
a digging upper level trough through the plains and into West Texas
and Mexico will send another cold front through the region on
Thursday. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area Thursday
and Friday.

Models are in agreement that an upper level low will cut off near
Sonora and baja Mexico on Friday as the main trough axis pulls away
toward the northeast U.S. The low is forecast to open and eject
northeast across south Texas Saturday into Saturday night. Low level
moisture return to this region appears to get cut off as a coastal
low/trough develop off the mid Texas coast. Nevertheless, height
falls ahead of the opening mid and upper low and strong dynamical
forcing as a 130-140 kt jet streak moves overhead, combined with a
plume of mid level moisture, should generate rain and elevated
thunder chances sometime Saturday or Saturday night. The operational
run of the 12z GFS is slightly faster than the 12z GFS at this time.
We have raised pops conservatively for Saturday and Saturday night,
and future adjustments upward in the pops may be required if trends
hold.

The system should quickly move northeast of the area early Sunday
with clearing and seasonal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 37 67 43 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 34 66 41 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 36 65 42 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 -
Burnet Muni Airport 34 66 39 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 -
del Rio Intl Airport 38 64 42 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 35 66 41 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 -
Hondo Muni Airport 34 66 41 67 39 / 0 0 0 - 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 35 66 42 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 -
La Grange - Fayette regional 35 65 42 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 37 66 44 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 -
Stinson Muni Airport 37 65 44 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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