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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
118 am CDT sun Jul 31 2016

Aviation... /06z tafs/

Mid level ridging has strengthened over the nrn Gulf Coast with
relative weakness over Mexico setting up a pressure gradient over
south TX. Thus southerly sustained winds could occasionally rise
above 12 knots in the afternoon and evening hours. Guidance still
shows daybreak decoupling which should continue to make low clouds
scattered v broken through daybreak. Will stick with persistence to show
slight lowerings to near IFR at daybreak and show only ssf as an
IFR cig. This is due to higher rainfall amounts that fell over the
past week in that vcnty. Depending on what the winds are doing at
daybreak, may consider expanding the IFR cigs to aus/Sat in the
12z update. Mixing to VFR is likely by 15 or 16z. No convection
is expected to impact the taf sites through the period.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 658 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016/

Aviation.../00z tafs/
isolated showers and thunderstorms southeast of the I-35 taf sites
and in Mexico west of drt are dissipating and will not affect
those terminals. Tonight's main aviation concern will once again
be borderline IFR-MVFR ceilings at the I-35 taf sites. Although
there may be some intermittent MVFR periods after 6-7z, IFR-MVFR
ceilings should not prevail until after 10-11z before recovering
to VFR around 15z. Patchy fog and LIFR ceilings may briefly occur
around sunrise, but for now have only included sct004 at ssf
between 12-14z. Drt should remain VFR aside from a brief period
of sct020 ceilings between 13-15z with east-southeast wind gusts
of 20-25 knots tomorrow afternoon. Winds tomorrow will be more
south-southeasterly below 15 knots for the I-35 sites.

Previous discussion... /issued 340 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016/

Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...
the lack of any significant ridging over the area has once again
kept our temps fairly moderate today. We are transitioning however
into a pattern where upper ridging will once again get
established. All ready seeing this influence as radar is fairly
quiet right now with only a few showers starting to show up in the
south and southeast along a developing seabreeze. Kept some 20 pop
in the forecast the remainder of this afternoon to account for
some of this activity moving into the coastal zones and areas
south of San Antonio. Look for low clouds to once again develop
tonight and burn off Sunday morning. With the ridging starting to
take hold on Sunday...pop will be even less and temps will start a
slow climb.

Long term (monday through saturday)...
with the ridge established mid week over Texas look for pop to be
zero and the temps slowing warming. Pop will be introduced back
into portions of the forecast late in the week for the south and
southeast zones as deeper moisture moves into Texas from the
Gulf. This deeper moisture associated with a wave over the
Atlantic will be approaching at that time. Its too early to tell
if this system will organize and where it will go...but a westerly
track is anticipated.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 98 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 98 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 74 97 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 77 100 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 76 98 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 73 97 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 76 97 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 76 97 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 76 99 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/aviation...Oaks
synoptic/grids...04

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