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fxus64 kewx 201726 aab 
afdewx

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Aviation.../18z update/
sub-tropical ridge remains in control across the region. VFR
conditions are expected through this forecast period. Will have
scattered afternoon cumulus and few to scattered stratocumulus
overnight. Could be an isolated shower late this afternoon at any one
of the I-35 sites, but confidence is low and will not include in the
forecast at this time. S/southeast winds 8-12 knots this afternoon and
Friday afternoon and southerly overnight at 5-7 knots.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 634 am CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

Aviation discussion...for 12z taf period...
a quiet weather pattern expected again today with VFR expected to
prevail for all sites through the period. Some morning MVFR cigs have
been sporadically impacting the I-35 terminals but have already
scattered out this morning with low level southwest flow drying
things out. Scattered VFR cumulus expected in the afternoon and
isolated showers well east of the I-35 terminals. Can't rule out a
stray shower impacting one of the I-35 terminals but not enough
confidence to include any inclusion in the taf.

Previous discussion... /issued 344 am CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

Short term (today through friday)...
upper air analysis last evening showed the subtropical ridge over the
south central part of the country. At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the Gulf and the pressure gradient across our County Warning Area was
weak. Winds were generally light from the southeast. This pattern
will continue during this period and keep most of the area dry. There
will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the
coastal plains where there will be deeper moisture, but even here
most places will be dry. Temperatures will continue to rise with a
few spots reaching 100 or a few degrees higher. Heat index values be
above 100 along and south of I-35/Hwy 90. A few places in the
southeast will reach 108 for an hour or two this afternoon and Friday
afternoon. Given the limited area and time we will not issue a heat
advisory and use a Special Weather Statement to communicate the
threat.

Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
little change is expected through the weekend and coming week. The
subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the period. Most of
the area will continue to be dry with slight chances for convection
over the coastal plains each afternoon. Temperatures will plateau
Saturday and decrease a couple of degrees going into next week. This
will mean the heat index approaching advisory criteria on Saturday
and Sunday afternoons in few places southeast of I-35 for a short
time. Heat index values will be a few degrees lower the first half of
next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 100 77 100 77 100 / - 10 0 - 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 98 76 99 76 99 / - 10 - - 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 75 99 76 99 / - 10 - - 20
Burnet Muni Airport 97 74 98 75 97 / - 10 0 - -
del Rio Intl Airport 99 77 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 98 76 99 76 99 / 10 0 0 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 100 75 101 75 101 / - 10 0 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 98 75 99 76 99 / - 10 - - 20
La Grange - Fayette regional 99 76 98 77 97 / 10 - 20 10 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 99 77 100 78 100 / - 10 0 - 10
Stinson Muni Airport 99 77 100 78 100 / - 10 - - 10

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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