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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
244 am MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Synopsis...
we've got Summer monsoon moisture over the southwestern U.S. But
most of it is over Arizona. For the Borderland we have fairly
meager moisture but still enough to see scattered mountain and
isolated lowland showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures will remain seasonally warm, but
with increased clouds and moisture highs should remain in the 90s
across The Lowlands this afternoon, and through all of next week.
Rain and storm chances look to increase for all areas next week
as the upper ridge weakens and allows better monsoon moisture
to move in over the region.

&&

Discussion...
model solutions have been pretty steady over the past several
days with high pressure aloft centered to our northwest and slowly easing
to our east during the course of the next 45-60 hrs. For the
short-term periods this means more of what we saw yesterday for
the region. Monsoon moisture is present in the southwest U.S. But
it focused over Arizona. Our area has a more meager amount which is
skewed west of the Rio, with drier air over the eastern half of
our forecast area. We look void of any upper disturbances today so
daytime heating resulting in orographic flow will focus early
afternoon storm development over the area mountains. We expect
more activity over western mountains than eastern mountains.
Outflow boundaries and storms moving out of the mountains will
give The Lowlands late aftn/evening rain/storms. Better chances
and thus higher probabilities of rain/storms for areas west of
Rio.

For the weekend, and all of next week, we expect warm daytime
highs a few degrees above normal, but certainly cooler than the
100 degree weather we just endured. Moisture will be adequate
enough again Sunday, and even slightly increased, for scattered
mountain thunderstorms and generally isolated lowland
thunderstorms. Again storm potential will be better over the
western and northern lowland zones vs. The southern and eastern
lowland zones across our forecast area.

Beyond Sunday and through the rest of the forecast cycle we should
see some moisture gains as the upper high pressure system focuses
east over the Southern Plains and eastward. This will allow a deep
southerly flow over the area and focus a monsoonal moisture
channel over S nm and far West Texas out of Mexico. In addition, models
indicate a Pacific trough to press east and help to shove the Arizona
moisture back east over our region after Wednesday. Thus we will
see good moisture gains and deeper and stronger instability from
Monday, Onward. We should see increased storm development with
this weather pattern. Pops will be a bit more uniform across the
forecast area as opposed to the west bias of the next couple of
days. Rain and storm chances will be increased for much of the
week as we keep pws between 1.00-1.25". In a steady monsoon flow
regime with weaker of high pressure aloft to help provide better
instability.

&&

Aviation...valid 30/12z-31/12z.
More scattered thunderstorms will affect the Sacramento Mountains,
Gila region, and areas west of the Rio Grande this afternoon and
evening. Drier conditions will prevail near/east of the Rio
Grande. VFR conditions all terminals through the period. Skies
will vary from few-sct100 scattered-bkn250 for lru and elp...to scattered-
bkn100 broken-ovc180 for dnm...to scattered-bkn070 bkn120 ovc250 ovr tcs
W/ isolated-scattered thunderstorms and rain. Tempo drops in visibility to 1 mi. In rain/dust for
tcs and dmn.

&&

Fire weather...
moisture will continue to improve over then next few days with
overall better thunderstorm chances. Even still, western areas
will be greatly favored over the east through about Tuesday. Many
areas in the Gila could see over an inch of rain between today and
Monday. After Tuesday the monsoon moisture plume shifts east and
allows for better rain/storm chances and better areal coverage for
locations east of the Rio Grande.

Temperatures will be trending down slightly due to the increased
moisture and expected extra afternoon cloud cover. Dewpoints up
and temperatures down will mean higher relative humidity vales with increased
overnight/morning recoveries.

Winds will remain light through the period, generally east to southeast in The
Lowlands. In the higher elevations, winds will be more terrain-
driven during the overnight and morning hours, then largely
influenced by thunderstorm outflow in the afternoons/evenings.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 97 74 96 74 / 0 0 10 20
Sierra Blanca 91 70 93 71 / 10 0 20 20
Las Cruces 94 70 95 70 / 0 10 20 30
Alamogordo 94 71 95 71 / 20 10 40 30
Cloudcroft 72 54 73 55 / 40 10 40 20
Truth or Consequences 95 71 93 71 / 20 30 30 40
Silver City 90 64 88 63 / 40 40 40 40
Deming 96 71 95 70 / 10 20 20 30
Lordsburg 94 67 91 68 / 20 30 40 40
west El Paso Metro 95 74 96 74 / 0 0 10 20
Dell City 95 69 96 69 / 0 0 20 20
Fort Hancock 96 73 97 73 / 10 0 20 20
Loma Linda 90 68 90 68 / 0 0 10 20
Fabens 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 20 20
Santa Teresa 95 73 96 72 / 0 0 10 20
White Sands hq 93 72 93 72 / 10 10 20 20
Jornada range 95 68 96 68 / 10 10 20 30
Hatch 96 70 96 69 / 10 20 30 30
Columbus 95 71 95 71 / 0 10 20 30
Orogrande 93 72 94 72 / 10 0 10 20
Mayhill 80 57 81 58 / 40 10 40 20
Mescalero 81 57 83 57 / 40 10 40 20
Timberon 79 56 80 55 / 40 10 40 20
Winston 87 59 86 60 / 40 40 40 40
Hillsboro 92 66 93 66 / 30 30 40 40
spaceport 94 69 93 68 / 10 20 30 30
Lake Roberts 88 56 88 57 / 40 40 50 50
Hurley 89 64 88 64 / 20 30 40 40
cliff 92 63 91 63 / 50 40 50 40
Mule Creek 90 59 88 59 / 50 40 50 50
Faywood 91 65 90 65 / 20 30 40 40
Animas 94 69 91 69 / 20 30 40 40
Hachita 95 69 92 68 / 10 20 30 30
Antelope Wells 91 67 89 68 / 20 20 30 30
Cloverdale 87 64 84 64 / 30 30 40 40

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

14-bird

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