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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
333 am MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Synopsis...
dry and warm weather continuing through Monday with near record
high temperatures. Changes are in store afterward however, as a
Pacific frontal system moves in Tuesday, along with a cool
eastward push after the front rolls through. Still looks dry but
Tuesday and Wednesday look much cooler, though temperatures will
only be slightly below normal. Another cool front moves in
Thursday to keep the cool air in place.

&&

Discussion...
models finally in good agreement on eventually breaking down our
old eastern Pacific blocking high. The forecast period will be a
tale of two differing regimes.

First regime...today through Monday...upper high persists just off
the Baja Coast and will slowly drift east as block busting deep
cold Pacific trough nudges the high along. Upper high actually
looks like it may have made a slight west drift with the WV
imagery but should drift over the Baja Peninsula Saturday
morning, then drift slowly east-southeast. High level moisture
continues to spill over the top of the high, giving some patches
of cirrus. Expect temperatures today to approach or break daily
records. Weak disturbance aloft spilling down front side of high
on Saturday will push a weak, shallow back door cool front into
the area. Not much cool advection with it, though just enough to
cut a couple of degrees off the highs for Saturday and Sunday. Axis
of the ridge drifts just to our east Monday as Pacific trough
moves onshore of the West Coast. This will turn our surface winds
back to southwest, becoming breezy in the afternoon. Near record
temperatures again Monday. Winds could cause some blowing dust
along the southern lowlands and create some driving hazards,
mainly near the Lordsburg playa.

Second regime...Tuesday through Thursday...autumn makes a return
as Pacific trough plows through with surface cold front. Trough
and front reach New Mexico Tuesday morning, with back door front
pushing in Tuesday night behind the Pacific front. Timing will be
critical; only Pacific front making it in before afternoon should
allow around a 10 degree drop. On the other hand if the back door
front begins filtering in by the afternoon, highs could drop in
the vicinity of 15 degrees. GFS/European model (ecmwf) differ on the trough, with
the GFS faster and not as deep. Going with this solution for now;
trough east of the area by late Tuesday afternoon. No real shot at
precip, with just a few clouds with the front. Wednesday will
remain cool, perhaps around 5 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Second
upper trough spills across the central rockies Wednesday night and
will allow yet another back door front into the County Warning Area by Thursday
morning. GFS showing this front with even colder air, so continued
cool on Thursday.

&&

Aviation...valid 24/12z-25/12z...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast timeframe. Skies
will be sky clear to few250 with a few passing cirrus clouds. Surface
winds will be vrb to light across the area. Afternoon winds west-
southwest 10-15 kts.

&&

Fire weather...
continued warm and dry through Monday, with temperatures
approaching record levels. Min rhs around 15-25%, a bit lower on
Monday. Breezy winds on Monday could allow fire conditions to
approach red flag criteria. Cooler temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday as cold fronts push through the area. Temperatures back
to normal or slightly below. Min rhs up a bit to 20-30%

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 78 48 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 80 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 77 43 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 75 41 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 62 35 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 77 42 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 73 41 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 78 42 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 77 43 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 78 49 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 82 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 82 46 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 76 42 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 80 45 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 77 44 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 78 45 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 76 33 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 78 35 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 79 43 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 76 45 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 73 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 72 37 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 73 36 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 74 33 75 31 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 76 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 76 32 75 33 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 76 33 77 34 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 73 40 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 76 28 74 29 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 76 26 74 29 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 75 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 78 42 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 78 42 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 80 41 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 79 42 77 42 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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