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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
254 am MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Synopsis...
record high heat is back in play across the Borderland today as
high pressure has moved back over for the weekend. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain quite limited across the region and
favor the area mountains and lowlands far west. Much of the desert
areas will remain dry for the weekend with afternoon high
temperatures above 100 degrees. Late day Sunday and for much of
next week there will be a moderate increase in moisture across the
region with a resulting increase in shower and storm activity for
all areas. With more clouds and shower activity temperatures will
cool back to near normal for much of next week.

&&

Discussion...
water vapor is clearly showing signs of a westward drift of the
upper high that was over OK and NE Texas. This large feature is now
over the Texas Panhandle with models indicating this westward
progression to continue. The imagery also shows continued drying
of the air over north/cent/W Texas. The result of the upper high's
approach today will be two-fold: 1) to shove the deeper monsoon
moisture channel west well into Arizona with some drier Continental air
moving into our region on east/southeast flow at mid and lower levels; and
2) to provide a bit of increased stability aloft with subsidence
and warm air aloft. These two things can be gleaned by observing:
a) satellite imagery over Texas with hardly any cumulus over any part of
the state except the Gulf plains and b) last night's epz sounding
which showed a sharp warm nose aloft just below the h5 level
providing the stable capping mentioned above.

For the forecast area the drier and more stable conditions should
manifest in a reduction in shower and storm development again
today and through much of Sunday. Any storms will favor the
mountains...mainly the Gila region with only a few over the far
western lowlands and possibly the Sierra lakes region. The
likelihood is for hot and dry weather. Temperatures this afternoon
will be at or above record highs. Temperatures will remain hot
through the weekend with the high pressure system overhead.
Lowlands will be in the 100-106 range both afternoons.

Late Sunday, and more so for Monday through the rest of the work
week, moisture begins to increase back into the region as the
upper ridge nudges northwest a bit towards The Four Corners and west.
This will allow the monsoon moisture plume to recycle back over
our region from the west and also allow moderate increases of
moisture from the Gulf on east/southeast flow as an easterly wave
approaches. The depth and amount of moisture looks to remain
somewhat sub-seasonal but still pws in the 1.10" to 1.25" range
look reasonable through the week. With the upper ridge bumped
north the capping should be reduced. This should bring about
increased shower and storm development for the entire region.
Still isolated to only scattered storms look to be the likely
outcome. With increases in moisture, clouds, and precipitation
temperatures should dip back down to near normal.

&&

Aviation...valid 23/12z-24/12z.
VFR conditions will prevail for most areas, but afternoon
terrain-based thunderstorms will develop over the Sacramento
Mountains and higher elevations of the Gila region later this
afternoon. Drier air aloft will continue to favor SW New Mexico
for thunderstorm coverage. Probabilities for thunder very low for
lru/elp...and only slight for tcs/dmn.

&&

Fire weather...
drier has worked into much of the forecast area from the east as
high pressure has drifted back west over the region. This has
driven the best moisture of the monsoon plume west into Arizona. Best
moisture favors far SW New Mexico for aftn/eve thunderstorms
today. Sacramento Mountains will still see some isolated activity
as well, but The Lowlands of south-central nm and far West Texas,
should be drt and hot. Relative humidity will trend down today as temperatures
trend up. Expect an increase in thunderstorm coverage late Sunday
as the upper ridge shifts and allows recycled upper level moisture
to work into the area. This will boost relative humidity values heading into next
week after they bottom out in the mid-teens lowlands /lower-30s
high elevations over the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 105 79 103 77 / 0 0 0 10
Sierra Blanca 100 71 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 103 72 101 71 / 0 0 10 20
Alamogordo 103 72 102 71 / 0 0 10 20
Cloudcroft 77 46 78 55 / 20 10 40 50
Truth or Consequences 102 72 101 72 / 10 0 20 20
Silver City 99 60 96 65 / 30 10 40 30
Deming 104 72 103 71 / 0 0 10 20
Lordsburg 103 69 100 69 / 20 10 20 20
west El Paso Metro 104 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 20
Dell City 104 72 103 72 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 104 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 99 67 99 70 / 0 0 0 20
Fabens 106 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 104 73 103 72 / 0 0 0 20
White Sands hq 103 74 101 73 / 0 0 20 20
Jornada range 103 64 102 68 / 0 0 20 20
Hatch 105 71 103 71 / 0 0 10 20
Columbus 103 74 103 73 / 0 0 0 20
Orogrande 103 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 20
Mayhill 87 52 86 58 / 20 0 30 40
Mescalero 88 51 88 57 / 20 10 30 40
Timberon 85 50 86 56 / 20 0 30 40
Winston 94 55 95 59 / 30 20 40 30
Hillsboro 101 65 101 67 / 30 10 30 20
spaceport 102 66 101 70 / 0 0 10 20
Lake Roberts 97 52 98 56 / 30 20 40 30
Hurley 99 63 97 65 / 30 10 30 20
cliff 100 57 100 62 / 30 20 30 30
Mule Creek 98 54 98 59 / 30 20 30 30
Faywood 100 63 99 65 / 30 10 30 20
Animas 103 69 99 70 / 20 0 20 10
Hachita 103 70 101 69 / 10 0 10 10
Antelope Wells 100 68 99 68 / 10 0 10 20
Cloverdale 96 61 94 63 / 20 0 20 20

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...heat advisory until 6 am MDT Sunday for txz418-419-423-424.

&&

$$

14-bird

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