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fxus64 kepz 232051 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
251 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Synopsis...
a cold front will move across southern New Mexico and West Texas
tonight with strong easterly winds behind the boundary transporting
moist unstable air into the region. As a result widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected this weekend and early next
week. A few storms may produce very heavy rains...hail and strong
winds. Westerly winds will bring hot drier weather next Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

Discussion...
period of stormy weather expected the next several days as a cold
front will move east to west across southern New Mexico and West
Texas tonight. A strong surface high behind the front will combine
with well defined heat/thermal low to the west to produce windy
conditions across much of the region...especially along western
slopes. Thus wind advisories have been issued for appropriate
zones including the El Paso vicinity.

The east to southeast winds behind the front will also advect very
abundant moisture causing surface dewpoints to surge into the mid
50s west to to lower 60s east across the County Warning Area with precipitable
water rising above normal to 1.1 to 1.5 inches by Saturday
afternoon. While temperatures will fall 10 to 15 degrees behind
the front the high amounts of low level water vapor will
significantly destabilize the air mass causing rather high
mucape's from around 1200 j/kg west to over 2300 j/kg east. Little
convective inhibition will exist with temperatures reaching
convective initiation levels by late afternoon. Models also infer
possible weak embedded waves moving into the County Warning Area from the
northwest. Finally storms should have no trouble forming over the
higher mountains where upslope flow will exist. Storms that do
develop in the afternoon will form outflow boundaries which will
generate more storms in the evening and overnight. Overall
scenario very favorable for widespread convection Saturday and
Sunday.

These storms may produce multiple hazards. First the very abundant
moisture and elevated instability will bring an enhanced risk of
heavy rains and flash flooding. In addition 20 to 30 kt mid level
northwest winds aloft will be collocated with 10 to 20 kt low
level southeast winds much of the weekend supporting 30 to 40 kt
deep layer shear. This will contribute to updraft enhancement and
even rotation and support large hail formation. Finally dcape's
will remain above 1000 j/kg so several storms may produce damaging
downbursts.

Longer range guidance suggests continued moist south to southeast
low level winds will sustain threat of deep convection Monday and
Tuesday. However beginning Wednesday upper ridge becomes aligned
on an east west axis south of the border causing westerly winds
aloft across the County Warning Area. Associated downslope warming will
subsequently result in surface trough becoming located along the
Front Range east of the County Warning Area. This pattern will generate a low and
mid level westerly wind with advection of warmer drier air. Thus
will outlook very warm temperatures with decreasing storm coverage
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

Aviation...valid 24/00z-25/00z...
backdoor cold front to push west into the County Warning Area around 03z with NE
winds 15g25 kts (g40+ kts west slopes passes until 18z). Sky/wx:
scattered-broken 050-080 scattered-broken 100-150 and scattered-broken 200-250. After 09z
increasling risk of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with
local MVFR and IFR bkn030-050 3sm +tsrags gust 40+ kts.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure aloft will remain over Arizona and New Mexico this
weekend. Daytime Max temperatures will again be near record levels
today. Isolated storms are possible during the PM hours today mostly
over the area mountains. A backdoor cool front from will start to
push in from the east beginning late Friday will bring cooler air
and a moisture increase to the region this evening into Saturday.
Temperatures will drop some 10 to 15 degrees back to normal for the
weekend and all of next week as east winds and increased moisture
bring substantial storm chances to the region for the weekend well
into next week. Lowland min relative humidity values will run from 7% to 12% (20-
30% Sacramento mountains) Friday then double on Saturday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 76 94 73 93 / 0 20 60 30
Sierra Blanca 72 90 68 89 / 10 20 20 30
Las Cruces 74 94 69 91 / 0 30 60 30
Alamogordo 70 90 67 90 / 10 30 50 40
Cloudcroft 54 68 51 68 / 20 50 50 70
Truth or Consequences 73 94 69 90 / 10 40 50 60
Silver City 69 93 65 87 / 10 50 60 60
Deming 72 96 69 93 / 0 20 60 30
Lordsburg 73 101 71 94 / 0 20 50 30
west El Paso Metro 76 94 73 92 / 0 20 60 30
Dell City 69 91 66 91 / 20 20 40 40
Fort Hancock 74 94 71 94 / 10 20 30 30
Loma Linda 72 88 67 87 / 10 30 60 40
Fabens 75 94 72 93 / 0 20 60 30
Santa Teresa 76 94 70 93 / 0 20 60 30
White Sands hq 75 92 72 91 / 0 30 60 30
Jornada range 70 92 66 91 / 0 30 60 30
Hatch 72 95 68 93 / 0 30 60 30
Columbus 75 98 72 95 / 0 20 60 30
Orogrande 74 92 70 91 / 0 30 60 30
Mayhill 57 75 55 75 / 20 50 50 70
Mescalero 57 77 55 76 / 20 50 50 70
Timberon 58 76 54 75 / 20 50 50 60
Winston 60 88 59 84 / 20 60 50 70
Hillsboro 68 91 63 88 / 20 60 60 60
spaceport 70 93 64 91 / 10 30 60 30
Lake Roberts 58 91 57 86 / 20 60 60 60
Hurley 68 94 65 88 / 0 40 60 50
cliff 68 100 64 94 / 0 40 50 50
Mule Creek 71 98 67 92 / 0 20 40 50
Faywood 68 91 64 88 / 10 40 60 40
Animas 74 102 71 96 / 0 20 40 30
Hachita 72 100 70 95 / 0 20 50 30
Antelope Wells 73 100 71 95 / 0 20 40 40
Cloverdale 72 98 70 92 / 0 30 30 40

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...heat advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for nmz404>407-409>413-
417.

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 am MDT Saturday for
nmz413.

Texas...heat advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for txz418>424.

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 am MDT Saturday for
txz418-419.

&&

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