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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
355 am MDT sun Sep 25 2016

Synopsis...
a strong cold front will move across New Mexico and West Texas
while an upper level low pressure system develops over the
southwestern United States. This weather pattern will bring much
cooler and windy conditions along with rain showers and a few
thunderstorms to the Borderland the next few days. Temperatures
will warm to near normal later this week but there will be
sufficient moisture for a few thunderstorms through the forecast
period.

&&

Discussion...
southern portions of high amplitude upper trough extended into
southwestern New Mexico early this morning with 100 kt jet streak
over Arizona plus low level cold air advection expected to support
formation of deep close low over the area before noon. The low
will subsequently drift southwest into northwestern Mexico later
today and become located over central baja by late Monday morning.
Cyclonic circulation around the low center will induce mid level
south to southeast winds through Tuesday with transport of
moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and baja into southern New
Mexico and West Texas.

Concurrently a strong cold front will push to the southwest across
the cwa today with increasing east to northeast winds behind the
boundary advecting much cooler air into the area. Thus expect
Monday high temperatures to be around 20 degrees below normal. In
addition strengthening gradients behind the front will push wind
speeds to near advisory levels by early evening...especially along
Western Mountain slope areas. The overall weather circulation
pattern will include the moist air to the south being
isentropically forced up and over the dome of cool air at low
levels and this will generate widespread rain showers this evening
and Monday.

On Tuesday upper low moves into Arizona and then phases with an
approaching Pacific trough Wednesday. Thursday and Friday the
high amplitude Pacific trough moves into the western United
States. Meanwhile at low levels the circulation will be dominated
by broad area of high pressure over the Southern Plains and
central Texas while low pressure covers the southwestern United
States west of The Divide. This scenario will induce south to
southeast low level winds beneath south to southwest winds aloft
with attendant moisture inflow. Consequently moisture will
increase with surface dewpoints rising above 50 most areas by
Wednesday afternoon with precipitable water above an inch. In
addition the flow will also advect warmer air back into the cwa
with temperatures increasing to near normal by Thursday. Air mass
thus becomes more unstable resulting in a threat of thunderstorms
Wednesday through at least Saturday.

&&

Aviation...valid 25/12z-26/12z.
Mostly VFR conditions with areas of ceilings above 10,000 feet agl
through 00z. After 00z scattered areas of MVFR and isolated areas
of IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Surface winds also increasing after 00z with east
to northeast winds gusting from 35 to 45 kt. Areas of strong
turbulance also possible below 5000 feet agl after
00z...especially along western slopes.

&&

Fire weather...
a strong cold front will move across New Mexico and West Texas
while an upper level low pressure system develops over the
southwestern United States. This weather pattern will bring much
cooler and windy conditions along with rain showers and a few
thunderstorms to the Borderland the next few days. Temperatures
will warm to near normal later this week but there will be
sufficient moisture for a few thunderstorms through the forecast
period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 77 57 62 51 / 20 60 60 20
Sierra Blanca 74 53 56 46 / 60 60 50 30
Las Cruces 76 54 62 49 / 20 40 50 20
Alamogordo 77 54 63 48 / 20 40 40 20
Cloudcroft 58 36 45 36 / 40 40 40 30
Truth or Consequences 72 51 62 48 / 0 20 30 20
Silver City 68 48 58 45 / 0 20 50 30
Deming 76 53 62 47 / 10 20 50 20
Lordsburg 76 54 64 48 / 10 20 50 30
west El Paso Metro 77 57 61 51 / 20 50 60 20
Dell City 74 51 58 46 / 50 70 50 20
Fort Hancock 77 57 61 50 / 40 60 50 20
Loma Linda 71 52 55 46 / 20 60 50 20
Fabens 77 55 61 48 / 30 60 60 20
Santa Teresa 77 55 61 49 / 20 50 60 20
White Sands hq 75 54 61 50 / 20 50 50 20
Jornada range 76 50 63 47 / 10 40 50 20
Hatch 75 53 63 50 / 10 20 50 20
Columbus 77 55 62 49 / 20 20 60 20
Orogrande 76 55 62 51 / 20 50 50 20
Mayhill 61 41 48 38 / 50 50 40 30
Mescalero 64 41 51 39 / 40 40 40 30
Timberon 63 40 49 38 / 40 50 50 30
Winston 66 41 56 38 / 0 20 30 30
Hillsboro 70 47 60 44 / 0 20 40 20
spaceport 73 51 62 47 / 0 20 40 20
Lake Roberts 68 44 58 40 / 0 20 40 30
Hurley 70 48 59 44 / 0 20 40 30
cliff 72 47 66 42 / 0 20 40 30
Mule Creek 72 43 64 40 / 0 20 30 30
Faywood 71 49 60 45 / 0 20 40 20
Animas 77 52 63 46 / 20 30 60 30
Hachita 76 51 62 45 / 20 20 60 30
Antelope Wells 75 52 58 45 / 20 30 70 40
Cloverdale 71 50 56 45 / 20 30 60 40

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Monday for
nmz404>407-410>417.

Texas...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Monday for
txz418>424.

&&

$$

05 rogash

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