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fxus64 kepz 171004 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
304 am MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Synopsis...
dry west flow aloft persisting today and Saturday with just some
higher clouds moving through. Cold front moves in from the north
and east Saturday morning. After near record high temperatures
today, highs on Saturday will be about 12-15 degrees cooler,
though this is still near normal for this time of the year. Upper
high builds over the western U.S. Sunday through mid week of next
week. This will continue the dry weather with above normal
temperatures. Another cool front does move in Tuesday for cool
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

Discussion...
relatively quiet with very little weather over the next seven
days, though some crisp little features will move in next several
days. In the short term, upper high persists (broken record) over
the baja and western Mexico. Considerable higher level moisture
streaming around the top of the high but remaining mostly north of
the area. Mimic-tpw imagery shows deeper stream of moisture moving
into Southern California and lasting into this afternoon, but
again, moisture remains northwest of our area (seems to be a
reoccurring theme). Expect near record highs today. El Paso
forecast high would tie record. Breezy afternoon winds could even
push US past the record (82 deg). These breezy winds could produce
some lowland blowing dust, especially near the Lordsburg playa.

Upper trough moves over Colorado and northern New Mexico tonight.
Decent moisture with the trough further north but not over US.
What the trough does for US is bring down a cool surge out of the
Great Basin for a side door attack early Saturday morning. Looks
like best winds may be down the Rio Grande Valley near the Sierra
co lakes region. Surface high pressure surge finally moves out
over the Southern Plains Saturday afternoon and should help pick
up gusty winds along west slopes of our mountains, though not
expecting much more than 30 mph gusts. Temperatures will cool
about 12-15 degrees from today, though this still puts US right
around normal for this time of the year. Despite cold advection,
models showing airmass quite dry so don't expect any low clouds
around the SAC mtns. Overnight lows Saturday night could be quite
chilly, and some new areas of The Lowlands could see their first
freeze of the season. This would be mainly Luna and Hidalgo
counties and far northern Dona Ana County.

Sunday and beyond...baja upper high begins rebuilding and becomes
more amplified than it has been this week. This will keep US in
a continued dry and mainly warm period, though not as warm as this
past week was. NAM and to lesser degree, European model (ecmwf) and GFS, pick up
on strong 110+ kt jet diving down front side of ridge and over New
Mexico Sunday afternoon. At the surface southeast return flow
tries to push some moisture back towards US. Looks like combo of
upper jet left front quad and this moisture will meet over
northern Mexico. Should not effect US but something to watch.
Gradual warm up Monday and Tuesday, though upper low dropping down
front of ridge will bring another backdoor front into Tuesday.
Looks like just slight cooling Tuesday with more cooling
Wednesday. GFS does show bit more low level moisture with this
front, so sacs could see some low clouds/fog with this feature.
Upper ridge nearly makes it over to New Mexico by Thursday,
creating another nice warm up.



&&

Aviation...valid 17/12z-18/12z...
dry zonal flow aloft thru fcst pd. Skc-sct250. Towards end of
period...increasing sct150 sct-bkn250. Sfc winds increasing to
west at 15-20 kts...with a few gusts to 30 kts from 18z-00z. Few
areas of 3sm bldu with these winds, mainly near the Lordsburg
playa.

&&

Fire weather...
dry weather and mainly warm temperatures for the forecast period.
Breezy winds 15-25 mph this afternoon, could worsen fire
conditions. Red flag criteria could be briefly met this afternoon
lowland zones, but likely to short to issue the flag. Near record
high temperatures today followed by cool down of 10-15 degrees
Saturday back to near normal as cold front moves in. Upper high
rebuilds over the western U.S. Sunday and beyond. Warm Sunday and
Monday, but then cool down again Tuesday and Wednesday as another
cool front moves in. Min rhs 10-15% today, then 15-25% Saturday
and Sunday with cooler temperatures.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 82 53 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 83 49 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 81 47 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 75 45 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 64 36 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 80 44 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 73 42 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 80 44 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 80 44 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 80 53 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 82 49 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 85 51 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 78 48 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 82 51 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 81 49 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 81 48 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 79 41 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 81 43 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 82 47 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 81 48 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 72 41 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 71 39 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 68 40 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 74 33 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 78 43 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 81 37 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 75 35 68 26 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 76 41 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 79 31 69 27 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 77 31 69 27 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 78 43 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 84 44 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 81 43 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 82 44 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 78 46 72 39 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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