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fxus64 kepz 281059 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
459 am MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Synopsis...
an upper level storm system will bring scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to much of the region today, along with
strong, gusty west winds across most of the lowland deserts. Rain
may mix with snow at times in the highest elevations above 7500
feet. Rainfall in The Lowlands will be very light. Areas of
blowing dust will also develop by the afternoon. Temperatures will
cool off to a few degrees below normal through Wednesday, with
some showers lingering in the mountains. A stronger storm system
is likely to bring stronger winds and more dust to the area on
Friday.

&&

Discussion...
upper level low is currently over northern Arizona, a little
further south than what was anticipated, but it appears to be
making the curve to the east presently. The further south track
will result in expansion of low-end pops into more of The
Lowlands.

The lead shortwave trough is depicted nicely on both GOES-13 and
16 water vapor imagery, and it about to pass through elp. A band
of light precip that developed ahead of it is currently moving
into the Sacramento Mountains, but snow levels appear to be around
10,000 feet based on area observations (ski Apache base is sitting
at 34 f). This band will push to the east of the area by sunrise.

Meanwhile, another vort lobe is helping to produce scattered
showers across the Gila. The main vort Max located south of the
low is moving into Southeast Arizona, and will reach the Rio Grande by
around noon. Winds aloft have trended lower, with 700 mb winds
running 30 to 35 knots, which may make it difficult to reach Wind
Advisory criteria in some areas. However, the surface pressure
gradient is still pretty strong and might give US the boost we
need.

Weak instability will allow for some isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon, particularly over Grant, Sierra, and Otero counties,
closer to the upper low and the attendant steeper mid-level lapse
rates. Snow levels will drop to around 7,000 feet in the Gila
around midday (behind the main vort max), but will rise back up to
8,000 feet by late afternoon. Some brief mixed precip will be
possible, especially in convective showers. Any accumulations will
be light, with most occurring above 8,500 feet. Parts of nm-15 and
Emory Pass could become slippery.

For the Sacramento Mountains, snow levels will drop to around 7000
feet early this afternoon, but with low quantitative precipitation forecast amounts, any slushy
snowfall will be limited to around an inch.

A secondary disturbance will drop down the backside of the low as
it departs on Wednesday, possibly bringing more showers to
eastern areas. Snow levels will have risen to around 9,000 feet by
then, but some mixing is possible down to around 7,500 feet.

By Thursday, weak upper ridging will develop, with temperatures
warming back up above normal again.

Friday's system is coming into much sharper focus and looks to be
a higher-end wind/dust event. GFS indicates 700 mb winds of 45-50
knots along the US-Mexico border by Friday afternoon, along with a
tight pressure gradient as Lee troughing develops from NE New
Mexico southward to The Big Bend.

GFS still tries to stall this low out over the area through most
of the weekend, keeping temperatures cooler (near normal), while
the European model (ecmwf) is more progressive, and seems the more likely scenario.

&&

Aviation...
strong westerly winds (20 to 25 knots, gusts 45 to 50 mph) will
develop this afternoon across the area, with blowing dust expected
in southern New Mexico (including dmn, lru, and elp). Scattered
convective showers and isolated thunderstorms will also affect the
region, but mainly north of a lsb-dmn-lru line. Winds will
diminish overnight. A stronger wind /dust-making system looks
increasingly likely for Friday.

&&

Fire weather...
the first of two upper level storm systems will move through the
area today, bringing scattered rain and snow showers to the Gila
region and Sacramento Mountains, and strong winds to the desert
lowlands. Minimum relative humidity values look to stay just above 15% over most
of The Lowlands, just shy of red flag criteria. A stronger system
looks to affect the area on Friday, with more widespread strong
winds and drier conditions.

&&

Hydrology...
irrigation season on the Rio Grande is set to begin the first week
in April. Water will be released from Caballo dam on Friday, March
31st. Water is expected to reach Leasburg dam on Saturday, April
1st, and should reach El Paso between April 3rd and 4th.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 69 52 71 48 / 20 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 70 46 69 45 / 10 10 0 0
Las Cruces 64 46 67 41 / 30 10 0 10
Alamogordo 67 43 64 42 / 40 40 20 0
Cloudcroft 40 28 41 30 / 60 50 50 10
Truth or Consequences 62 46 68 43 / 60 20 10 10
Silver City 56 38 63 40 / 70 20 20 0
Deming 66 45 70 41 / 40 0 0 0
Lordsburg 65 40 68 39 / 40 10 0 0
west El Paso Metro 67 52 69 50 / 20 10 0 0
Dell City 73 43 68 38 / 20 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 73 49 72 46 / 10 10 0 0
Loma Linda 64 47 63 46 / 20 10 0 0
Fabens 71 49 71 44 / 20 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 67 49 69 44 / 20 10 0 0
White Sands hq 66 49 66 48 / 30 30 0 0
Jornada range 65 41 67 36 / 30 30 0 10
Hatch 64 43 67 42 / 40 20 0 10
Columbus 67 49 72 45 / 20 0 0 0
Orogrande 67 47 66 46 / 30 20 0 0
Mayhill 55 34 53 33 / 40 30 50 10
Mescalero 52 34 52 33 / 60 50 50 10
Timberon 51 34 51 31 / 50 40 40 10
Winston 53 33 63 29 / 80 30 30 10
Hillsboro 59 41 66 39 / 50 20 20 10
spaceport 62 42 66 40 / 50 30 10 10
Lake Roberts 53 29 63 25 / 70 30 30 10
Hurley 59 38 65 35 / 60 20 10 0
cliff 61 33 70 32 / 70 20 10 0
Mule Creek 58 37 67 37 / 70 30 0 0
Faywood 60 42 66 41 / 50 20 20 10
Animas 66 43 68 40 / 20 0 0 0
Hachita 66 43 69 39 / 20 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 66 43 70 42 / 20 0 0 0
Cloverdale 60 40 67 43 / 30 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...blowing dust advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening
for nmz404>407-410-411-413.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
nmz404>407-410-411-413-417.

Texas...blowing dust advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening
for txz418>420.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
txz418>424.

&&

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