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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
300 PM MDT sun Apr 30 2017

Synopsis...
westerly winds at the surface and aloft have rapidly returned to
usher in drier and warmer conditions and bring back more typical
Spring weather to the Borderland for the work week ahead.
Temperatures will warm back up into the upper 80s Monday and
Tuesday. Although winds will not be overly strong, they will be
occasionally breezy in the afternoon hours. A weak dry backdoor
cold front from the east will push in and drop temperatures about
5 to 8 degrees or so for next Thursday but temperatures should
rapidly rebound and rise to around 90 degrees by next Friday and
Saturday. A fairly strong Pacific storm system will approach the
Borderland by next weekend and bring a threat of increasing winds
and showers.



&&

Discussion...
with yesterday's storm system well to our east (center as of 20z
was over the Kansas/OK border) drier and warmer west-northwest flow at the
surface and aloft as already start to warm US back up. As
yesterday's massive upper trough continues to progress eastward,
riding aloft off the Pacific coast will continue to develop and move
into the western United States. As this ridge continues to amplify
longitudinally, it will places New Mexico under a deep dry northwest
flow pattern and keep US mainly clouds free through the upcoming
work week. Upper air heights will rise and with some Lee
cyclogenesis and dry adiabatic westerly winds down the slopes,
temperatures will return to the upper 80s for the first part of
the week.

One derivative of the amplified Pacific Ridge to our west will be
that it will act as a conduit for a shot wave trough to drop
southeastward from northwest Canada into the Great Plains and
move a minor backdoor dry cold front into the County Warning Area later Wednesday
and Thursday. At this time the only collateral damage should be
about a 5 to 8 degree temperature drop Thursday along with some
clouds and a few showers over the southern Sacramento Mountains.
During this period. The rest of the region should remain dry. With
the cool front push into the region Thursday will be the cool day for
this package with a drop of about 8 degrees.

The only weather of interest at this time appears to be starting
next weekend as a much stronger deep Pacific storm system is
forecast to drop down and deepen into a large upper level closed
low over Southern California by next Sunday and remain there into
the first part of next week. GFS and European model (ecmwf) agree about to 144
hours then diverge on the position of the low but either solution
will result in drawing in subtropical moisture into our area with
implications into next week of gusty winds and increasing showers
and thunderstorms.With this potential setup at this time of year
we could possibly see some strong and or severe thunderstorms.
Stay tuned.



&&

Aviation...valid 01/00z-02/00z...
p6sm sky clear through period. Winds will generally be west to northwest decreasing
from 10-20g30kts by 03z to below 10kts. Winds will increase again
around 18z to 10-15g25kts.

&&

Fire weather...
northwest flow over the region will bring a return to hot and dry
conditions for much of the upcoming week. Relative humidities will
return back to the single digits to mid teens starting Monday and
remain so through the week. Winds will start out occasionally
breezy but should remain under critical criteria through Tuesday
before decreasing for the later half of the week as an upper ridge
builds over the region. Vent rates will start out very good to
excellent but fall into the fair to good range as winds decrease the
second half of the week.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 52 85 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 49 83 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 46 82 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 45 79 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 33 58 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 44 80 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 42 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 44 82 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 44 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 52 84 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 45 85 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 50 87 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 49 79 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 51 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 49 84 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 49 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 42 82 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 44 83 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 48 85 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 48 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 36 68 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 35 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 37 66 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 35 74 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 43 79 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 41 82 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 33 74 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 41 76 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 38 81 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 39 77 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 43 78 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 44 83 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 43 83 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 44 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 44 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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