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fxus64 kepz 252027 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
227 PM MDT Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis...
warm and windy conditions look to continue Friday with another
warm but less windy day expected Saturday. By Sunday a cold front
will push into the region, setting the stage for a weather
pattern change. Temps will cool to below normal for much of next
week as moisture streams into the region from the south and east.
This will result in a daily dose of showers and storms across the
Borderland Monday through Thursday of next week.

&&

Discussion...
warmer than normal temperatures look to remain across the area for
the next couple of days despite the fact that the upper ridge
responsible for the heat is shifting to the east. Meanwhile a
split flow pattern continues across the nation with a broad trough
in place across the northern rockies while the southern stream
features an enhanced southwest flow across the Desert Southwest.
A core of 50 knot winds at 500mb will remain over our region this
afternoon through tomorrow while Lee troughing keeps the surface
gradient tight and the winds elevated. Normally with this type of
situation we see much stronger wind gusts due to mixing of the
winds aloft during the heat of the afternoon. However a spray of
mid and high clouds has slowed that trend down just a bit today.
Come Friday the clouds should be leaving the picture, thus we
expect another breezy to windy day Friday as well. However,
current forecast projections for Friday keep winds just shy of
advisory criteria.

The gradients look to relax some Saturday leaving behind another
rather toasty day, but with noticeably less wind to contend with.
However things will be changing before the weekend wraps up. As
another wave of northern stream energy digs into the Central
Plains states, a fairly strong back door cold front will push into
and through the area Sunday. While some stronger West Slope winds
will occur with this front, the most notable features associated
with the front will be a return to cooler than normal temps for
next week along with a steady push of low level moisture from the
east and southeast.

With the arrival of the moisture comes the threat for some
precipitation. A few showers and storms will be possible Sunday
afternoon over the Sacramento Mountains due mainly to upslope
flow behind the front. However for Monday and most of next week we
will likely see daily doses of showers and storms across the
entire area as a cutoff low settles over the baja region of Mexico
and helps funnel in additional mid and high level moisture over
the region. Long range models indicate that we will remain under
the influence of the upper low through late week before it exits
to the east and drier air begins to return to the region.

&&

Aviation...valid 26/00z-27/00z... p6sm few-sct150 scattered-bkn250
through 12z, then skies becoming skc-few250. Winds main concern with
west to southwest winds of 20-30g40kts through 03z then decreasing
to 10-15kts at all except eastern mountain slopes where speeds will
remain stronger through 06z-09z. After 15z winds increase again to
20-25g35kts.

&&

Fire weather...
one more day of windy, dry conditions with a red flag warning in
place for Friday. West-southwest winds will once again pick up
tomorrow, but should be slightly less than today. Going into the
weekend, southwest flow will continue Saturday with warm and dry air
remaining in place but winds will be below critical speeds. Starting
Sunday, winds will be shifting around to the south to southeast
which will bring in abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture with the chance
for showers and thunderstorms starting Sunday night and continuing
through much of next week. Little in the way of fire weather
concerns once this pattern sets up next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 72 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 71 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 61 90 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 63 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 46 66 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 59 88 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 52 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 59 89 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 57 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 72 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 66 97 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 73 97 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 67 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 72 95 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 67 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 68 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 57 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 56 91 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 63 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 68 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 54 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 50 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 46 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 40 78 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 48 86 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 54 90 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 39 78 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 45 81 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 48 86 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 53 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 49 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 58 90 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 57 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 54 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 54 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for nmz110>113.

Red flag warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for nmz110>113.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for nmz402>417.

Texas...red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for txz055-056.

Red flag warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for txz055-056.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for txz418>424.

&&

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