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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
329 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Synopsis...
persistent upper trough continuing in place over the Great Basin
for the next several days. Resultant southerly flow aloft will
bring some tropical moisture across the area. A chance of
thunderstorms will continue through Monday, mainly from El Paso
east. A cool front moves in from the east Tuesday, spreading the
moisture to areas west of the Rio Grande Valley. From Tuesday
through most of the remainder of the week, the entire area will
see scattered thunderstorms. A few could become severe, with large
hail and damaging winds. Temperatures after Tuesday will cool
below normal.

&&

Discussion...
persistent long wave upper trough over the Great Basin will
continue in place with very little movement through mid to late
portion of next week. Sub tropical moisture continues to stream
northward in the southerly flow aloft. WV imagery shows plume
still from about El Paso east, although deepest layered moisture
now east of the County Warning Area. Will keep Flash Flood Watch in for eastern
cwa, but have less confidence in this now. Short wave rotating out
of the trough and to the Gila region now. Lots of cumulus with this
feature, along with a few showers, but left pops out of this area
tonight as short wave should be through.

Sunday and Monday...moisture plume continues to hang on in the far
eastern cwa, so kept low pops in for eastern Hudspeth and Otero
counties.

Tuesday through Saturday...back door front begins moving in Monday
afternoon, although better push isn't until Tuesday afternoon.
This easterly push will distribute moisture more evenly across the
cwa, hence higher pops begin all areas for most of this period.
Modest MUCAPES and good shear environment point to the possibility
of some severe thunderstorms. European model (ecmwf) quite similar to GFS with
overall synoptic pattern, but not as bullish with the quantitative precipitation forecast. Looks
like Wed/thur will be the best window for thunderstorms. New
closed low forms over Arizona Wednesday night, adding some upper
dynamics to the mix.

&&

Aviation...valid 24/00z-25/00z...
a moisture plume from Mexico is bringing some moisture to the area
through the forecast period. Risk of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms all areas 00z-06z the east of the Rio Grande 06z-
12z then southeast Hudspeth County after 12z sct060 sct100 sct160 except
briefly in shower and thunderstorm areas scattered-bkn040 broken-ovc100 2sm
thunderstorms and rain wind gusts 30-40kts. Brief MVFR IFR in heavier showers. After
12z all areas except southeast Hudspeth county; clr to sct060 sct120. Winds
gnly until 06z then sw08kts.

&&

Fire weather...
a deepening upper level trough over the western U.S. Is pulling some
enhanced mid-level moisture into areas near and east of the Rio
Grande today. This will result in an increase in showers and
thunderstorms through Saturday. Drier air will persist over SW New
Mexico. Temperatures will slowly drop to near normal by Sunday. A
backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures and more
widespread precipitation by Tuesday, mainly for areas east of the
Continental Divide.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 65 85 63 86 / 30 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 62 84 62 84 / 40 0 0 20
Las Cruces 56 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 59 84 58 84 / 20 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 45 65 46 65 / 30 0 0 30
Truth or Consequences 55 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 51 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 52 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 50 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 65 85 63 84 / 20 0 0 0
Dell City 62 84 62 85 / 50 0 10 30
Fort Hancock 65 86 65 87 / 40 0 0 10
Loma Linda 64 83 62 84 / 30 0 0 10
Fabens 65 86 64 86 / 30 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 62 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 60 84 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
Jornada range 57 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 55 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 55 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 63 84 60 85 / 20 0 0 10
Mayhill 52 78 52 73 / 40 0 10 30
Mescalero 51 76 51 74 / 30 0 0 20
Timberon 51 75 52 73 / 30 0 0 30
Winston 48 81 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 52 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 55 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 45 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 51 80 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 45 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 46 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 51 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 49 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 50 83 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 50 83 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 51 79 50 81 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for nmz414>417.

Texas...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for txz419>424.

&&

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