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fxus64 kepz 262147 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm
247 PM MST sun Feb 26 2017

Synopsis...
a small storm sweeping across the Borderland this evening will
bring some clouds and winds to the area. Another storm system will
move off the Pacific Ocean and to the Borderland Monday night and
Tuesday. This system will spread strong winds to most of the area,
with gusts above 60 mph possible in the afternoon. Showers will
also develop, mainly over the mountains. After Tuesday the
Borderland will remain under a dry west to northwest flow aloft,
with above normal temperatures.

&&

Discussion...
small quick hitting upper low/storm now over Arizona and western
New Mexico. Afternoon winds have started to pick up, and though
advisory criteria looks marginal, will let advisory for southern
zones run its course. Several sites along and south of I-10 are
now gusting into the 30s. Still a slight chance of showers, mainly
over the mountains, but this chance likely done by midnight.
Monday clears out with the storm exiting, just waiting for storm
number two.

Storm number two currently organizing over the eastern Pacific.
System will phase in with trough/vort center as a broad trough
over the western U.S. Monday night. System will integrate some
tropical moisture per SSMI tpw, so some moderate precip possible.
Models showing tpw around .50 inches by Monday night and Tuesday.
Showers starting Monday night west of Deming, and then spreading
further east Tuesday, though chances best west and north of Las
Cruces. Snow levels will remain mostly above 7500 feet, but with
decent moisture, would not be surprised if the Gila/Black Range
above this elevation sees about 3-5 inches of snow. Main threat as
is usually the case this time of year, will be winds. GFS showing
low level winds reaching 35-45 mph with mix down winds around
700mb of 45-55 mph. Right now Wind Advisory pretty much a lock
and is bordering on warning criteria. Models showing winds
diminishing and turning northwest by mid evening, so late night
East Slope wind event may not develop.

System to clear the area Tuesday night. Wednesday through Sunday
period looking dry and warm as main storm track remains north of
US in a low energy zonal flow. By the weekend, high temps could be
around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

Aviation...valid 27/00z-28/00z...
VFR conditions with few140-sct250 except over Gila region where
mid- lvl clouds west with sct080/bkn120. Start of period thru 02z
270-280 with winds 25-30kts and gusts 35-45kts and decreasing
visibilities. Bldu could cause local sfc visibilities down to 1sm
across The Lowlands. 02z to 06z winds decreasing to 260-270 with
15-20 winds and gusts 25-30kt. After 06z thru rest of period winds
26010g15kt.

&&

Fire weather...
windy and dry weather returned to the region today. Red flag warning
remains in effect until this evening for fire weather zones 055, 056
and 112. Monday the region sees a break from the winds as the next
Pacific storm system begins to approach the area from the east.
Tuesday the Pacific storm system moves across the area bringing very
windy conditions. Increased moisture will keep min rhs just above
critical thresholds. As a result all zones will remain just outside
reg flag warning criteria Tuesday but with the environment very dry
and conditions very windy fire danger will be high, if not very
high. Wednesday and into the latter part of next week a period of
calm, warm and dry weather settles in over southern New Mexico and
West Texas.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 45 68 50 66 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 43 70 48 67 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 36 66 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 39 65 45 63 / 0 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 22 39 31 36 / 0 0 10 30
Truth or Consequences 35 64 42 58 / 0 0 0 20
Silver City 34 54 37 47 / 0 0 20 50
Deming 35 65 40 60 / 0 0 0 20
Lordsburg 34 63 38 56 / 0 0 20 30
west El Paso Metro 45 68 50 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 37 68 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 42 72 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 40 65 45 61 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 43 70 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 40 67 45 64 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 42 66 48 63 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 34 66 40 62 / 0 0 0 10
Hatch 36 65 43 61 / 0 0 0 20
Columbus 39 69 44 64 / 0 0 0 10
Orogrande 40 68 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 29 51 39 52 / 0 0 10 20
Mescalero 27 51 36 48 / 0 0 20 20
Timberon 27 49 36 48 / 0 0 10 20
Winston 25 54 31 49 / 0 0 20 40
Hillsboro 30 61 37 55 / 0 0 0 30
spaceport 34 63 40 58 / 0 0 0 10
Lake Roberts 26 51 30 46 / 0 0 30 60
Hurley 34 58 35 51 / 0 0 20 30
cliff 34 60 36 50 / 0 0 20 50
Mule Creek 32 56 37 46 / 0 0 30 60
Faywood 29 60 36 54 / 0 0 10 30
Animas 34 66 41 60 / 0 0 10 30
Hachita 34 66 40 61 / 0 0 0 20
Antelope Wells 36 67 40 61 / 0 0 0 20
Cloverdale 34 61 39 55 / 0 0 0 20

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...red flag warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for nmz112.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for nmz404>407-410-411-
413-417.

Texas...red flag warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for txz055-056.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for txz418>424.

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