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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Discussion...
issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Short term (tonight through Monday night):

This afternoon the remnants of an mesoscale convective system that developed last night over
Nebraska has continued to push southeast through this morning and
early afternoon and is moving into the County Warning Area. This cluster of showers
with embedded thunderstorms is expected to diminish by late
afternoon. However, overnight a low level jet is expected to develop out
across Kansas and nose into south Nebraska overriding a warm front.
Another mesoscale convective system is expected to develop and roll southeastward through
the overnight hours. Models still do not have a great handle on the
placement of the front and consequently where thunderstorms will
develop. The NAM is much further north into central Nebraska than
the GFS which develops storms over central Kansas. Both move
convection into the area during the morning hours tomorrow so have
likely pops over the western County Warning Area for tomorrow morning with
decreasing pops as you progress eastward. Storms will continue
through the morning hours before diminishing tomorrow afternoon. A
warm front will be lifting through the County Warning Area tomorrow however, cloud
cover should keep temperatures near normal with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Tomorrow night, the low level jet gets ramped again and overrides
the warm front developing nocturnal convection once again. The NAM
develops convection across the northern County Warning Area with the GFS developing
storms right across the County Warning Area. Consequently have likely pops across
the northeastern County Warning Area with diminishing pops from NE to SW. Storms will
diminish Monday morning as the low level jet weakens. The warm front will lift
north of the area during the day Monday capping US off. The
retreating warm front coupled with upper level ridging building into
the area on Monday will bring a return to hot conditions with highs
in the low to mid 90s with heat indices into the 100-105 range.
Conditions for Monday will have to be monitored for a possible heat
advisory with future updates.

Long term (tuesday - friday):

The extended forecast will be generally hot and dry as the region
will be dominated by an upper level ridge of high pressure. Expect
highs in the low to mid 90s through at least Thursday. Thursday
night models are consistent in moving an upper level shortwave
across the northern plains and upper Midwest forcing a cold front
into the region. Models show some difference as to just how far
south the cold front can push into ridge however the potential is
there for storms Thursday night into Friday. This front/storms would
also allow for a bit of a respite from the heat with highs on Friday
topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop over the eastern half
of Kansas tonight and then track east late tonight into Sunday
morning. Confidence in how widespread activity will be and timing
into the terminal area prevents mention of a thunderstorms and rain group so have
maintained the thunderstorms in the vicinity. Outside of thunderstorms moving over a terminal,
VFR conditions are expected. Within a storm, brief IFR conditions are
likely with reductions to visibility and ceilings.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
aviation...cdb

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