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000 
FXUS63 KEAX 272338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 349 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

Very active jetstream pattern over the U.S. this afternoon with 
last night's potent shortwave slowly exiting stage right. Despite
its departure, afternoon visible satellite imagery showing plenty
in the way of low-level cloud cover over the lower Missouri 
Valley, as moisture remains trapped below a developing subsidence
inversion. This cloud cover shows little signs of departing 
anytime soon and as a result, overnight lows should remain in the 
lower to middle 40s across much of the area. By tomorrow, short- 
term model solutions show weak shortwave ridging building 
overhead, which should keep much of the day and evening hours dry 
before rain moves back in after midnight tomorrow night. Before 
this happens however, expect highs Tuesday afternoon to warm into 
the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the region. 

Speaking of rain, get ready because the remainder of the work 
week look very unsettled as a developing upper trough seen over 
the Desert Southwest this afternoon slowly meanders east with 
time. Fcst models show this trough eventually closing off over 
the Desert Southwest as additional energy over the Pacific 
Northwest phases later tonight into Tuesday. By all accounts, the 
upper pattern expected by Wednesday will largely resemble a 
bona fide winter pattern, with accumulating snowfall expected 
across the Central Rockies. Closer to our neck of the woods, a 
strengthening low-level jet along the eastern periphery of the 
approaching upper closed low will lead to plenty of moisture 
advection north into the Nation's Heartland, with precip expected 
to move in around midnight Tuesday night. Instability parameters 
remain relatively weak with this system, as the bulk of high 
dewpoints remain down over the ARKLATEX region. Despite this, 
NAM/GFS MUCAPE fields showing a few hundred joules through the day
on Wednesday, so isolated thunder will remain possible, especially
south of I-70. Considering the slow movement and abundant 
moisture supply, the hot button item with this system will be 
long duration light to moderate rainfall, which will certainly 
help ease some of the drought concerns we've had in recent weeks.
By the time all is said and done, widespread amounts of 1-2" 
should be common, with a few localized 2.5"+ not out the whelm of 
possibilities, especially along and south of Route 36.

Dry weather looks to temporarily return to the area later in the 
day on Friday as main closed low exits to the east. Weak ridging 
will once again build overhead for the first part of the weekend 
as yet another strong storm system intensifies over the Desert 
Southwest once again. The first impacts from this feature set to 
arrive later in the day on Saturday, with widespread rains once 
again expected over the area. Again however, best instability 
will remain south of the forecast area, thus widespread thunder 
may once again be hard to come by. Overall, temperatures should 
remain near, or slightly below seasonal levels through the period,
as precip chances continue and abundant cloud cover remains. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

Expect low clouds to linger through the rest of the forecast
period. There is some indication that CIGs will come down a bit
overnight night and perhaps flirt with IFR thresholds. But for now
will maintain a forecast of low end MVFR CIGs for the entire
forecast period. There could be a period of a few hours with some
hazy conditions which will diminish visibility to MVFR levels as
well. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

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