Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 220246 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
946 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

issued at 329 PM CDT Thursday Sep 21 2017

The main issue with this forecast continues to be the abnormally hot
and humid conditions affecting the area. This morning's low at mci
was a record warm low of 76. The old record was 72. It's unlikely
the area will drop below the old record before midnight given the
continued mixing into the overnight hours. The record warm low
for tomorrow morning is 74 and that's in jeopardy as well.

Mixing will persist through the overnight hours with winds remaining
in the 10 to 15 mph range. This will help keep overnight
temperatures much warmer than normal and probably only a few degrees
shy of where our normal afternoon highs should be. Lows across
eastern Kansas and western MO should be in the low to mid 70s and
outlying areas near 70. With the surface front that helped initiate
convection early this morning lifted north of the area, it should
remain dry overnight. For tomorrow, similar highs to today can be
expected. So we should see highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

This heat is expected to persist into Saturday and perhaps into
Sunday. At the very least it looks as though the humidity will
persist through the weekend even if temperatures aren't quite as
hot. Thus it will still feel unusually warm and humid. It isn't
until Monday and Tuesday next week when a front moves into the
area that things will start to cool down. This front will also
help bring widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to the
region. For now, the threat of any severe weather looks low owing
to the fact that the strongest winds aloft remain well north and
west of the area, limiting shear. The instability looks
relatively weak which will also limit severe potential.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 944 PM CDT Thursday Sep 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. The main
concern is the southerly winds will be gusty again, beginning
shortly after sunrise, and then decreasing after sunset. In
addition, a diurnal cumulus deck should set up similar to
yesterday for the late morning through sunset.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations