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afdeax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Discussion...
issued at 128 PM CDT Thursday Jun 22 2017

This is the last day of rather warm temperatures as a strong cold
front will move in tonight. Before that occurs there is a
diurnally driven low cloud deck covering the southern half of the
County Warning Area. This may continue to expand northward due to southerly low-
level moisture advection associated with dew point Cindy. The clouds have
helped temper the temperatures in these areas and the clouds
should mix out near sunset.

The front is progged to move quickly across the region later
tonight. Along the front scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop. A few may be strong, but not expecting widespread
coverage. The better chances to receive rain will be across north
Central/Northeast MO. The activity should clear the County Warning Area shortly
after sunrise. The most noticeable result will be a cooler and
less humid airmass. Very cool temperatures, by late June measures,
are in-store for the weekend and the start of next week with
highs in the 70s.

Looking past Monday, there are no clear signals for widespread precip
until mid/late week. Temps will slowly modify to near normal (mid-
80s).

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1145 PM CDT Thursday Jun 22 2017

The main issue for all taf sites tonight will be showers and
thunderstorms that are expected to form along an approaching cold
frontal boundary from the north. Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will push through after 7-8z and only last 2-3 hours
at each location. The main threat for on station thunderstorms
will be kstj and kmci with tempo -tsra added and the southern taf
locations keeping thunderstorms in the vicinity as the line is expected to weaken as it
moves south. Some guidance had indicated potential MVFR ceilings
behind the frontal boundary earlier but have since started to back
off of and keep things all VFR which is what the current tafs
have. This will be watched and MVFR ceilings could be added if
they start to develop over the next few hours.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

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