Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1239 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Discussion...
issued at 258 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to percolate across the
southeastern half of the County Warning Area this morning, in an area of ample
instability and elevated frontogenesis. This environment will
translate southeast with time as surface high pressure bulges into
the region from the northwest, continually limiting the northward
extent of new convective initiation with time. Very weak shear, a
high freezing level, and the Post-surface-frontal boundary layer
will keep the severe weather chances low; however, storms do appear
fairly outflow dominant, and will need to make sure strong cores do
not translate gusty winds to the surface during their collapse.

After storms depart the region, cooler temperatures and quieter
conditions are expected for the remainder of the day as surface high
pressure filters in. The cold front which sunk through the area last
evening will remain south of the forecast area and eventually wash
out; however, surface flow will gradually return to the southeast as
high pressure continues its southeastward drift through midweek.
Thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday as a shortwave trough
digs across the forecast area, and will continue on-and-off as
several additional waves drop through the region in northwest flow.
The overall pattern is not supportive of organized convection or
heavy rain, but the cooler, slightly wetter pattern will bring some
relief to the hot, dry stagnation of the previous week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1236 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Area of showers from eastern Kansas into west central MO is quickly
drying up and don't expect more than sprinkles for the first few
hours of the afternoon. Of more importance is an area of MVFR
ceilings from west central into central MO which should exit the
region by mid to late afternoon.

Extensive convective cloud debris with ceilings aoa 15k ft stretching
from central Kansas through east central MO will gradually thin/dissipatethrough
the afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
light winds.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
aviation...mj

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations