Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 171155
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 am CST Fri Nov 17 2017
issued at 341 am CST Friday Nov 17 2017
Little change overall to the forecast so will hit the highlights.
Surface observations and GOES-16 10.3-3.9 shows low stratus streaming
northward into the area as of this morning. A double structure warm
front resided south of the forecast area - one boundary just south
of Interstate 70 and another near the Red River valley. These
boundaries will lift north as the day progresses. Continued warm air
advection will result in relatively shallow saturation within the
lowest 5kft. With weak ascent at the top of this layer, periodic
drizzle and scattered showers are expected through much of the
daylight hours. Weak radar returns have increased over the past
several hours, signaling the first of this activity developing.
With the arrival of the warm front, temperatures will be well
above normal with highs near 70 in east central Kansas to the
middle 50s in northeast Missouri. The main area of drizzle should
generally push northeast as the warm front clears the area late
this afternoon. Weak instability will develop across the southeast
half of the forecast area by this evening. As a cold front,
currently near the NE/South Dakota border, pushes through the area late this
evening and overnight, a few elevated thunderstorms may develop
along the front. Otherwise, additional Post-frontal precipitation
will develop as large scale ascent increases and a window of
deeper vertical saturation commences as the primary upper trough
and associated 140kt upper jet nose moves across the region.
Forecast soundings generally show an all rain event, with the
exception of a few solutions over northern Missouri where the
vertical profile may cool sufficiently for light snow to mix
before drier air moves into the area. A rather quick end to the
rain is expected, with clearing skies from west to east during the
afternoon hours. Northwest winds behind the cold front will be
rather breezy, with occasional gusts of 35 mph not uncommon.
Beyond Saturday, no appreciable weather is anticipated for the
area with temperatures bouncing around either side of
climatological normals for this time of year.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 550 am CST Friday Nov 17 2017
MVFR to IFR conditions expected through much of the period.
Stratus will continue over the area with heights potentially
lowering a couple hundred feet from current conditions. Visibility
may also be reduced in areas of drizzle expected to develop within
the next few hours. Some improvement is expected late this
afternoon, with ceilings lowering again with a better chance of