Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 191741 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1141 am CST Tue Feb 19 2019

issued at 316 am CST Tuesday Feb 19 2019

Bottom line: forecast remains largely unchanged as confidence
remains high for accumulating snowfall later today into tonight. A
Winter Storm Warning has been issued for far northwest Missouri,
with a Winter Weather Advisory for all other areas.

Upper wave over the Desert Southwest will quickly eject into the
plains states later today, becoming increasingly negatively-tilted
and drawing moisture northward. Biggest forecast challenge
remains on timing of mid-level dry slot that gradually erodes
cloud ice and transitions snowfall production to light freezing
rain/drizzle. As it stands, greatest deep ascent and saturation
should occur prior to midnight, with a loss of cloud ice
following. With initial dry air to overcome, there remains some
model spread with respect to the timing of precipitation
reaching/developing over the forecast area. Most probable period
will be late afternoon to early evening across the area, with a
rapid spread/increase in precip rates thereafter. The most likely
period for accumulating snowfall is expected between 00-07z, with
a transition to lighter precipitation in the form of light
freezing rain/drizzle or a mix thereafter. All accumulating
precipitation is expected to conclude before/around sunrise
Wednesday. Snowfall amounts will be highest in far northwest MO with
totals in the 5-7" range where persistent, deep lift/saturation
will reside. Points south and east can expect a steady reduction
in amounts, with 3-4" from kc to Kirksville. For areas of east
central Kansas to central Missouri, snowfall amounts of 1-3" are
possible, along with total ice amounts up to 0.10". Biggest period
of impacts with active weather is anticipated between 00-08z,
with moderate snowfall rates that will quickly accumulate and
greatly reduce visibilities will little visual cue - followed by
light icing that may further cause hazardous conditions. Travel
across the entire forecast area is expected to become
difficult/hazardous beginning this evening into Wednesday morning.

The system will quickly lift to the north in response to another
strong wave diving southeast along the California coast - our next
notable weather maker. Due to this, minimal cold air advection is
expected and temperatures will moderate Wednesday into Saturday,
with even some areas returning to the 50s by the end of the week.
Model spread has improved and confidence is increasing for this next
strong wave to through on Saturday. The track will be critical to
determining precipitation type, but currently the majority of the
precipitation looks to be in the form of rain. In fact, moisture and
instability will be on the increase ahead of the system, and a few
thunderstorms are certainly possible with the dynamics and
environment in place. On the backside, cannot rule out wrap-around
minor snow accumulations in northwest MO as the system departs.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1141 am CST Tuesday Feb 19 2019

Wintry precipitation returns this evening through Wednesday
morning. Snow is expected to move into eastern Kansas and western MO
around 22-00z and quickly move northeastward. Visibility and
ceilings will drop as well and will stay low through much of the
night. Moderate pockets of snow are possible between 00z-06z,
especially in northwest MO and northeast Kansas. Around midnight, we
will start to see a transition to freezing rain from the south to
the north. A freezing rain and snow mix is possible mainly along
and east of I-35. The wintry precipitation is expected to move out
from the southwest to the northeast around sunrise, with
lingering freezing drizzle/drizzle possible through the morning
hours. Overall, conditions should start improving around 18z


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 am CST
Wednesday for ksz025-057-060-103>105.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 am CST
Wednesday for ksz102.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 am CST
Wednesday for moz028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 am CST
Wednesday for moz007-008-012>017-020>025.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 am CST
Wednesday for moz001>006-011.


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations