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fxus63 keax 171713 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1113 am CST sun Dec 17 2017

issued at 335 am CST sun Dec 17 2017

The rain forecast for this morning is currently seen on radar
sweeping it's way northeast along with the parent shortwave trough
that is responsible for it. Currently, satellite and radar trends
indicate that the system is moving rather quickly, and wont have
much residency time in Kansas and Missouri today. Add to that the
prevailing dry airmass that the trough has spread the rain across,
and expectations for rainfall totals of a few hundredths to a couple
tenth of an inch still look reasonable, with the highest amounts
likely across in central to eastern Missouri. Otherwise, with
generally light southerly winds persisting through the day, expect
temperatures to remain a bit above normal despite the clouds cover
and rain, with highs in the upper 40s to around 50.

Looking beyond today, the prevailing pattern will continue to be
dominated by a split flow through mid-work week as a western Continental U.S.
Trough digs in across northern Mexico and turns into a cut off
circulation, only to eject across the Southern Plains later this
week. Precipitation from the transit of the trough across the
Southern Plains wont reach as far north as our section of Kansas
or Missouri. Temperatures will continue to run above normal as
the prevailing westerlies from the split flow remain to our north,
keeping the truly cold winter air trapped up north for a few more
day, though that will change by the end of the work week.

Of interest later in the work week will be a large scale adjustment
in the pattern as the split flow across the western conus, that has
been dominating for the past couple of weeks, will finally evolve
into a large trough, resulting in a highly amplified pattern in
place across the nation by next weekend. This may result in a bit
of light rain to snow across the northern portion of Kansas and
Missouri Thursday as the developing trough ejects a leading
shortwave across the northern plains, which will result the focus
for precipitation residing to our north. But, regardless of what
precipitation falls, temperatures for Friday and through the
Holiday weekend will be chilly, with highs in the 30s and lows
well down into the 20s, and maybe teens.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1106 am CST sun Dec 17 2017

MVFR ceilings will dominate the region with pockets of IFR
ceilings early on in the period, mainly over mci and ixd. Once the
IFR ceilings shift to the east the MVFR ceilings look to remain
most of the evening. There will be a window between 22z and 03z
that ceilings could possibly raise up to VFR so a tempo was added
to mci to account for this change. Ceilings look to go all MVFR
again around 06z and remain that way through sunrise when they
will clear out quickly behind a boundary passing through. If the
clouds clear quick enough there is the possibility of fog
formation through the Missouri River valley which may affect stj
and possibly mci around sunrise. Once the clouds clear out and all
fog has burnt off by mid morning all terminals should be VFR for
the remainder of the period.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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