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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1237 am CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

issued at 400 PM CDT Monday Oct 23 2017

Windy conditions and fire weather concerns early in the forecast
period, then colder conditions to bring first hard freeze this
season on Saturday morning.

Strong cold front has well south into Texas and tight gradient
will continue to bring strong winds through the next couple of
days. Not expecting much relief overnight through the cwa, as
decoupling not likely. The models show 850mb winds remain around
50kts all night tonight with deep 500mb trough axis from southeast
Minnesota through southern Illinois. Given the criteria for
advisory is sustained 30kts with gusts to 45kts, will hold off on
advisory for now, but we will need to monitor overnight and again

This pattern will keep the Missouri and Kansas in deep
northerly flow through Thursday morning. Dry conditions will
bring increasing fire weather concerns, but will hold off on
headlines for now as winds will diminish somewhat later in the
week. Northwest Missouri needs to be closely watched as it is
drier there and the wind may be more a factor as well.

A second push of even colder air will begin making its way from
western Canada later in the week, so by Friday morning northern
areas of the County Warning Area will be around 32 deg f. By Saturday morning we
will see middle 20s north to around 30 deg f south.

No precipitation is expected for the next 7 days.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1237 am CDT Tuesday Oct 24 2017

VFR conds will prevail thru the taf pd as mostly clr skies are
expected. The main concern for aviators will be the winds. Winds
will be gusty out of the northwest btn 10 to 15kts with gusts to
25kts early this morning but, will increase to 20 to 25kts
sustained with gusts to 35kts by late morning. Winds will wkn aft
00z dmshg to around 10kts.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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