Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1230 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

issued at 344 am CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

Surface high pressure will continue to influence our weather today,
ushering in relatively drier air with dewpoints in the 60s along and
north of the Interstate 70 corridor. Afternoon temperatures will be
close to normal in the mid to upper 80s. With high pressure in place
and no obvious upper disturbances headed our way, the weather will
remain dry through at least tonight. Overnight lows will be similar
as to tonight in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Humidity increases by Wednesday as surface dewpoints creep back into
the lower 70s. The upper pattern becomes amplified over the central
conus, resulting in northwest flow over the forecast area through at
least the early part of the weekend. As typical with this time of
year, upper disturbances embedded within the northwest flow are
rather subtle and fairly unpredictable with respect to timing and
trajectory, and likewise operational models currently struggle with
these specifics. The takeaway is several opportunities for
precipitation will exist Wednesday night into the weekend, although
by no means will each day be a washout. High temperatures will hover
near or slightly below normal climo levels, and will be partially
tied to convective timing and remnant cloud debris.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1230 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as winds
generally remain from the east between 5-10 kts. Cannot rule out
MVFR visibility restrictions early Wednesday morning at stj...but an
unfavorable wind direction precludes mention right now. Fair wx cumulus
between 3-4 kft will quickly erode with loss of daytime heating early
this evening.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations