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fxus63 keax 261108 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 am CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

issued at 323 am CDT Tuesday Sep 26 2017

A cold front draped across our County Warning Area will be the main story over the
next 24 hours. Scattered rain showers will accompany this front as
it very slowly moves to the southeast throughout the day. These showers
will be most intense in the morning and start to dissipate
throughout the day with almost no precipitation expected in our area
by the evening as all forcing for precipitation weakens. The
boundary is expected to usher in a cooler airmass with today being
the coolest of the days with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
due to added stratus clouds behind the front lasting most of the
day. This boundary is expected to stall over our southern County Warning Area as a
weak stationary boundary with some isolated chances of showers
and light rain Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, but
precipitation amounts will be almost negligible.

Surface high pressure will build into the area quickly Wednesday and
dominate the weather pattern as the long wave trough over the
southern rockies gets cut off and stalls any progressing in the
upper level pattern. This cooler airmass will keep our high
temperatures in the lower 70s and our lows in the lower 50s through
the weekend, making it one of the nicest weekends of the year. The
next chance for precipitation will finally reach our area Monday
morning as a shortwave trough moves into the West Coast and finally
ejects that stalled cutoff low into the northern plains. The pattern
looks almost like a mirror image of tonight except the north-S oriented
boundary looks to stall over our area instead of central Kansas. This
boundary looks to stick around for a few days so it is possible the
area might get some much needed rain if this solution pans out, but
currently only the GFS has a more widespread precipitation pattern
as the European model (ecmwf) is mostly dry after Monday.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 604 am CDT Tuesday Sep 26 2017

Scattered showers will remain over the terminals for the next few
hours bringing occasional rain and lower visibilities to possible
MVFR levels at times. MVFR ceilings will also accompany these
showers with IFR ceilings upstream moving into the area over the
next few hours. The ceilings may bounce from MVFR to IFR as these
lower clouds push through so a tempo IFR ceiling has been added to
most terminals and predominant IFR to kstj. The ceilings will
start to rise into all MVFR by early afternoon and VFR by late
afternoon as the front and precipitation push to the east staying
that way through the end of the period.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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