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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Discussion...
issued at 351 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Tonight - Tuesday night:

A decaying mid level vorticity Max over south central Kansas and it's
associated convective debris cloud cover will slide southeast while
the cloud cover gradually decreases. Surface high pressure from the
Central Plains into Iowa shifts east with light northeast winds
allowing somewhat drier air to at least work its way into northern
MO over the next 24 hours. In a nutshell expect benign and somewhat
less humid weather tonight through Tuesday night.

As the surface high continues east weak southerly return flow will
commence over the Central Plains and MO Tuesday night. Have
introduced low chance pops over the far southern County Warning Area for late
Tuesday night as operational models hint at elevated convection via
isentropic ascent on the 310k surface.

Wednesday - monday:

The large dome of high pressure aloft which was parked over the
central U.S. Will have completed its reformation process over the
western U.S. Early in the period. An upper trough positioned over
southeast Canada will result in northwest flow being generated
between the two systems from the southern Canadian rockies through
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys for most of this period. As is often the case
a number of nebulous weak shortwaves/impulses will be embedded
within this flow which the operational models struggle on
timing/location. Lacking a discernible surface front have accepted
the model blend of broadbrush painting pops in most every 12 hour
period with the expectation that we'll better define the rain
chances as one of these features becomes better resolved by the
models.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 624 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Quiet weather next 24 hours. Mostly clear skies and light east-northeast winds
through the period.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

$$

Discussion...mj
aviation...hawblitzel

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