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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 am CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

issued at 344 am CDT Monday Apr 24 2017

Another dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s is in
store for today. The surface high responsible, however, continues
to move to the east as a surface low is starting to take form
over The Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient over our
area, producing sustained southerly winds at 20-25 kts today with
gusts between 30-35 kts through sunset.

Tuesday, an active weather pattern begins which will give US on
and off storm chances through the weekend. Early Tuesday morning,
a positively tilted upper level trough will slide east from the
Pacific northwest, providing upper level support for the
aforementioned developing surface low. This, in addition to an 850
mb low-level jet, and surface warm front, will help create rain
chances Tuesday morning in northern Kansas and northwest MO.
Instability should be limited during this time; therefore, only
rain showers are expected. Warm air advection will strengthen over
the area as the day GOES on, helping increase temperatures into
the upper 70s and low 80s south of I-70 and low to mid 70s north
of I-70. This will also help create instability Tuesday
afternoon/evening. A cap will be in place for most of the day
though until the surface low moves into eastern Kansas and the
associated cold front enters northwest MO Tuesday evening and
sweeps through Kansas and MO. In addition, the upper level trough will
deepen providing more energy. This all creates a chance for more
widespread showers and storms and the potential for severe weather
Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. Severe weather is
possible in areas south of Highway 36 in MO and southeast of I-35 in
MO and Kansas. Both MUCAPE and SBCAPE values are between 1500 j/kg and
2000 j/kg, with 0-6 km bulk shear between 50 kts and 60 kts, and
dewpoints near 60f. The primary concerns with the severe weather
potential right now are large hail and isolated damaging winds.

After the frontal passage, temperatures will drop to below normal,
with highs Wednesday only expected to be in the 50s and low 60s. In
addition, Post-frontal showers are increasingly likely and could
last through most of the day Wednesday. We will see a break from
the showers and storms for much of Thursday until a broad upper
level trough from the northern rockies sends energy pulses this
way Thursday evening ahead of a developing surface low. The upper
level trough and surface low will strengthen in the
Friday/Saturday time frame, producing showers and storms over MO
and Kansas for most of the weekend. There is potential for severe
weather and flooding concerns with this system. The system should
exit the area early next week.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 620 am CDT Monday Apr 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the period, but widespread gusty
winds are forecast for this afternoon and low level wind shear is possible
overnight tonight. A surface high is sliding off to the east as a
surface low develops over eastern Colorado/western Kansas. This will
tighten the pressure gradient, producing widespread southerly
winds sustained at 20-25 kts gusting up to 35 kts for a majority
of the daylight hours. Winds should decrease below thresholds
around sunset. A few hours after sunset, a southwest to northeast
oriented 850 mb low level jet will ramp up, creating low level wind shear
concerns in the lower 2000 ft with 30-40 kt winds at or near that
altitude. The low level wind shear will mainly be in eastern Kansas and western MO and
is expected to last for the remainder of the period.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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