Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 222343 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

I'd like to say this is the last day of hot weather, but since it's
Summer i'll limit the opening line here's the last day of
obnoxiously high heat index values --around 110-- for a day or two.

Forecast remains on track for today and tonight with a surface front
starting to push south across the forecast area this afternoon.
Currently, the front is roughly along a line from just south of St
Joseph east northeast to near Kirksville. Visible satellite imagery
backs this up as cumulus clouds are noted developing along the
leading edge of the front, though their flat nature at the moment
indicates that the cap aloft, noted on the morning top upper air
sounding, is currently holding. However, visible satellite imagery
also shows a nice cumulus field bubbling up across western Oklahoma
into south central Kansas, ahead of the dry line. Thoughts are that
as the front moves south, it will run into the moisture axis across
south central Kansas, and that is likely where convection will begin
along the front this afternoon. Given the lack of notable surface
convergence along the front is eastern Kansas and northern Missouri,
thoughts are that storms will start to our west this afternoon and
then slowly shift east. All this will be occurring in an environment
with cape values over 4000 j/kg and little shear, thus while storms
likely will start off pulsing up and be rather strong, though
widespread, or abundant, severe weather is not expected as the
storms will likely collapse, with the outflow helping generate new
storms. As a result, expect locally strong and gusty winds to the
primary hazard beyond the lightning and torrential rain that will
accompany these storms. Current hi-res model timing has the storms
developing in the not to distant future, around 4 to 5 PM this
evening, shifting east into our forecast area around 6 PM, with the
general trend seeing the storms slowly shifting from west to east
along, and maybe, just behind the front as the front continues to
settle south.

Sunday into the beginning of the work week...convection may
lingering into the Post sunrise hour along and south of the Missouri
River, but the chances of that are slim as the front should be
across southern Missouri, putting the focus for activity south of
our area of concern. Otherwise for Sunday, temperatures, and more
importantly dew points, will be a little lower; not a lot, just a
little. But, after the past week of high heat index values any
relief is welcome. Expect temperatures to still be ranging in the
low 90s with heat index values around 100 for areas south of Highway
36. Temperatures will continua there slight downward trend going
into Monday, but currently it starting to look like the seasonal
temperatures, in the upper half of the 80s, that where expected for
Monday and Tuesday wont stick around long as high by Tuesday likely
get back into the 90s across much of the region. Additionally, looks
like the chances for storms in the forecast are now shifting towards
the end of the work week as the ridge quickly moves back in to
dominate our local weather.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period; however,
there is the potential for storms this evening across the area.
Storms have already developed and are expected to continue to
develop along the cold front, which extends from near Kirksville,
southwest over the kc Metro area. Storms will be scattered in
nature and will eventually move to the southeast with the front
through the overnight hours. Right now, storms and the front
should be south and east of a line from mkc to Moberly around
midnight. Near dawn, the front and precipitation should be south
of the forecast area. The rest of the forecast period should be
dry with winds veering to the west in the afternoon.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ksz025-

MO...excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations